THE MIDTERM CURSE. BITCOIN HAS DROPPED IN EACH OF THE LAST FOUR 📉 👉 The level to keep in mind: $73k That’s the average realized price for short-term holders. In bull cycles, this zone has often caught the correction. 📅 The potential buyback date mentioned earlier: January 13. Cycle-by-cycle figures: - 2010: −72% - 2014: −65% - 2018: −52% - 2022: −27% Q4 in election years doesn’t look great either. 2014: −16.7% 2018: −42% 2022: −14.8% 2010 was +391%, but the market was a different beast back then.

CRYPTO'S WORST NIGHTMARE JUST TRIGGERED A 14-YEAR CURSE! Uptober failed to deliver once again, with BTC closing October in the red for the second consecutive year: 🔴 2025:-3.69% 🔴 2026: -7.19% This hasn't happened since 2012. And the crash dragged down practically the entire crypto market. 🔹 L2 – best performance, down about -15% 🔹 AI & DeFi – roughly -18% to -20% 🔹 L1 – around -22% 🔹 Memes – around -23% 🔹 Gaming – the biggest loser, plunging by about -30% 💭 All eyes are now on November: bulls desperately need a massive recovery to reignite market momentum. But looking back at post-midterm election month statistics, the odds are rapidly shrinking!

$940 billion vanished from US stocks at today's open as the AI trade fractures 🚨 https://t.co/Mj12739M3d

YOUR PORTFOLIO IS IN DANGER IF YOU HAVEN'T SEEN THESE NUMBERS Chipmaker stocks are trading at a 23% discount to the S&P. • Forward P/E: S&P 500: 19.0x • Information Technology: 19.6x • Semiconductors: 14.6x In other words, the sector driving the entire trend is cheaper than the very index it’s inflating. Tech as a whole is actually more expensive than the broader market. Yet chips inside it are on sale. Two possibilities: Either the market is already pricing in the cycle's peak, remembering how fast semiconductor margins can compress. Or everyone is fixated on capex and funding, and the multiples simply haven't caught up yet.

JD VANCE’S PORTFOLIO IS BASICALLY AN AGGRESSIVE BET ON THE ENTIRE U.S. ECONOMY The U.S. Vice President isn’t just backing America on the podium. His disclosed personal book is an ultra-concentrated vote of confidence in domestic equities. 📊 Estimated breakdown: 🔸 S&P 500 ($SPY): ~30.2% 🔹 Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ): ~30.2% 🔸 Dow Jones ($DIA): ~30.2% 🔹 Gold ($GLD): ~3.8% 🔸 Bitcoin ($BTC): ~3.8% 🔹 20+ Year Treasuries ($TLT): ~1.8% 💰 Over 90% of the entire stack is locked into just three broad-market index ETFs. No obscure small-caps, no foreign stock picking, and almost zero defensive cash. Just a massive, blunt allocation to large-cap America, capped off with an equal hedge between digital and physical sound money (BTCandGLD). Simple enough to look boring. Aggressive enough to print if U.S. exceptionalism keeps dominating. Is this the cleanest modern index strategy or an index-bubble trap waiting to happen?

SPACEX’S $470B CAPEX BILL MAY BE LESS SCARY THAN IT LOOKS 🚀 Everyone’s focused on how $SPCX will fund its 13 GW buildout. But AI revenue could ramp much faster than the market expects. My model points to: 🔹 $314B in FY2027 revenue 🔸 $122B in Q4 2027 alone 🔹 ~$90B in cash already on the balance sheet If operating cash flow and existing cash cover ~$290B of capex, SpaceX would need to raise roughly $180B in debt, less than 1x its projected year-end EBITDA run rate. Of course, that depends on execution. If capacity ramps slower, revenue falls, but capex needs should also come down. 📉 A correction toward $100 is still possible. But from H2 2027, once the risks tied to insider share unlocks fade, I expect $SPCX to resume its climb.

FED HOLDS RATES — BUT THE VOTE WASN’T UNANIMOUS 👀 👉 Even despite keeping rates on hold, the rhetoric in the statement remained hawkish. The Fed no longer considers its current policy restrictive enough to bring down inflation. Meaning we should expect more aggressive actions ahead 10–2 to keep rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. What matters: → Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented, favoring a 25 bps hike. → The Fed sees solid growth, supported by investment, productivity and resilient consumer spending. → Inflation remains elevated, so the next moves will depend on incoming data. ❗️ One notable change: the statement dropped language suggesting the current policy stance would help return inflation to target faster. Warsh speaks in 30 minutes. That’s the next thing to watch.

ANTHROPIC MAY PAY $SPCX $120.5B FOR COMPUTE 🤯 That’s the ceiling disclosed in Anthropic’s S-1. And the economics get wild once the full capacity comes online in December. ~$3.1B/month in payments ~$37B annualized ~$9.3B for just one quarter For context, SpaceX did $14.6B in total revenue last quarter. The fun part? Anthropic is renting compute from a company building its own AI to compete with Claude. One big caveat: $120.5B is a contractual maximum, not guaranteed spending. Exit windows open in early 2027. Still, SpaceX is turning GPU capacity into a massive revenue engine, while scaling its own AI ambitions. Who needs to choose between building AI and selling shovels when you can do both?

BIG TECH’S AI WAR HAS A $242B WAR CHEST 💰 Alphabet $GOOGL is sitting on almost twice as much cash as Amazon $AMZN. Cash + short-term investments: $GOOGL - $242B $AMZN - $123B $SPCX - $100B $META - $90B $MSFT - $77B $NVDA - $62B That’s serious firepower for the AI infrastructure race. That cash is the fuel for the AI buildout. Whoever is sitting on a mountain of it doesn't need to scramble for 15% debt like CoreWeave. 📆 This week, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft are updating their spending plans. Don't look at revenue guidance. Look at who on that list is actually starting to burn through their pile.

BITCOIN'S 66-DAY STREAK IS DEAD: IS A $62K CRASH NEXT?! 🚨 UPtober is officially cancelled as BTC slides below its 50-day MA for the first time since August. With 62% of past similar drops triggering a brutal 8% to 33% sell-off, a plunge to $62K is firmly on the table. Keep your eyes locked on this Wednesday's FOMC meeting and Warsh’s speech, expect choppy sideways action until the market breaks!