NASDAQ 100 - CYCLE HIGH? While most passive investors pour money into Tech ETFs, hoping to repeat the 2010-2025 performance, might be time to remind that: • Equity factors, such as growth vs. value, follow cycles. • 2 thirds of the Nasdaq 100's return since 2010 have been due to P/E expansion rather than earning growth (responsible for the other third). In addition, the Nasdaq 100 (adjusted for money supply) has now reached 4σ above its long-term trend while the 2000's top happened at +5σ, and you get an idea of its current risk-reward in a rising rate environment. So, do I short the Nasdaq? No, because overpriced does not mean an asset will go down tomorrow. Do I stay away from it? Yes. Do I go to cash? No. Thankfully, many segments of the market aren't expensive at the moment (value, small-cap, most commodities) $QQQ $VOO $VTV