Posts
avatar

It's time, $OPEN Q4 week 3 acquisitions. 477, up 11%, I'll take it, But need more 🙏🏻 hopefully steady leg higher into year end and next year, velocity is key, in building, in acquiring and in selling. The Q4 run so far: → 525 → 428 → 477 Q4 is averaging 477 a week across three weeks, which is 2.8x the same weeks last year. This week alone was 2x last year. A solid bounce after last week's dip, but need more. At 5% contribution margin: → 477 × 13 = 6,201 contracts a quarter → × $377,500 = $2.34B revenue → × 5% = $117M contribution → − $110M costs = $7M a quarter → about $0.03 adjusted EPS annualised → 30x = $0.91 | 45x = $1.37 | 60x = $1.83 At 6% contribution margin: → 477 × 13 = 6,201 contracts a quarter → × $377,500 = $2.34B revenue → × 6% = $140M contribution → − $110M costs = $30M a quarter → about $0.13 adjusted EPS annualised → 30x = $3.95 | 45x = $5.92 | 60x = $7.89 These are contracts, not all acquisitions mentioned close, but again gives an idea of what can happen to the stock when the market finally decides to pay attention. Relative clearance, Opendoor vs MLS: → 1.19x → 1.22x → 1.11x → 1.15x → 1.27x → 1.19x → 1.09x → 1.10x Opendoor homes are still clearing 10% better than MLS, I do want to see this drastically creep up into next year, Resale COEs are the standout. Q4 closings reached 628 by Oct 21, against 431 last year. That's 46% ahead, and the gap has widened every week this quarter: 35%, then 42%, now 46%, I like this a lot :) So the picture this week: → Buying bounced 11% → Selling still beating MLS by 10% → Closings 46% ahead of last year, and widening I think we're at the very beginning of the Opendoor run. In recent weeks, Opendoor has shipped: → A rebuilt Android app for buyers → AI virtual staging, which furnishes listing photos automatically → A simpler path to an offer for sellers on mobile → A new operations workspace for the team Each one looks small on its own. Together, they make it easier to sell to Opendoor, easier to buy from Opendoor, and cheaper to run behind the scenes. A better experience brings more traffic, more traffic brings more volume, and lower costs per home + additional built in services will bring more clean positive margin to the bottomline. I want see more, more buys more sells into year end 😅 If Kaz pulls this off, we re-rate soon, stars are aligning. Patience and conviction. nfa, long $OPEN 🏠

This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It may include third-party insights, sponsored content, or promotional material for which the creator may receive compensation. Nothing in this feed constitutes investment advice or a guarantee of returns. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. Always conduct your own research and exercise caution before trading. We do not guarantee the accuracy of third-party information and are not liable for any losses incurred. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please refer to our Community Terms and Risk Disclosure Statement for details.

avatarPost your reply

Comment