FOMC Catalyst | $BTC Long-Term Wins Tomorrow's FOMC shows a HOLD priced in. Here's the dovish vs. hawkish path, then a great zoomed-out study from @sminston_with on BTC ~ 2034. • Fed holds tomorrow: 94% odds • December hike: ~76% priced • 2034 Monte Carlo: no run below $80K Warsh's FOMC | What's Priced ○ Hold at 3.75-4.00% (Kalshi 94%) ○ CPI 3.7%, payrolls just +29K ○ No dot plot - wording is the event Dovish Hold | Risk-On Path ○ Softer inflation tone, labor focus ○ December hike odds fade ○ $BTC reclaim $82K ○ Opens the door for $86K -90K Hawkish Hold | Risk-Off Path ○ Tightening bias locks in December ○ Yields up, tech breadth thins ○ $BTC $75 -78K liquidity sweep FOMC History | Coin Flip ○ Last 22 FOMCs: BTC up 10 after 5d ○ Median 5-day move: -0.6% ○ 6 of 22 swung 10%+ either way Asymmetric Payoff | Zoom Out ○ Monte Carlo study from @sminston_with ○ 5,000 runs to 2034, none below $80K ○ Median $1.48M, bottom 5% ~$464K ○ Calmer modern data trims the median The Fed sets the next 10%, but if you zoom out to 2034 distribution barely notices.