FOMC Catalyst | $BTC Long-Term Wins Tomorrow's FOMC shows a HOLD priced in. Here's the dovish vs. hawkish path, then a great zoomed-out study from @sminston_with on BTC ~ 2034. • Fed holds tomorrow: 94% odds • December hike: ~76% priced • 2034 Monte Carlo: no run below $80K Warsh's FOMC | What's Priced ○ Hold at 3.75-4.00% (Kalshi 94%) ○ CPI 3.7%, payrolls just +29K ○ No dot plot - wording is the event Dovish Hold | Risk-On Path ○ Softer inflation tone, labor focus ○ December hike odds fade ○ $BTC reclaim $82K ○ Opens the door for $86K -90K Hawkish Hold | Risk-Off Path ○ Tightening bias locks in December ○ Yields up, tech breadth thins ○ $BTC $75 -78K liquidity sweep FOMC History | Coin Flip ○ Last 22 FOMCs: BTC up 10 after 5d ○ Median 5-day move: -0.6% ○ 6 of 22 swung 10%+ either way Asymmetric Payoff | Zoom Out ○ Monte Carlo study from @sminston_with ○ 5,000 runs to 2034, none below $80K ○ Median $1.48M, bottom 5% ~$464K ○ Calmer modern data trims the median The Fed sets the next 10%, but if you zoom out to 2034 distribution barely notices.

$BTC | October Range Sweep BTC swept its October range low this week's Fed FOMC x Q3 earnings week. Three reads to watch + the bullish path for a patient Fed. • $BTC swept $79.2K, now $80.6K • Daily RSI 42 at Sunday's close • Fed Wed, PCE Thu, $78K max pain Fri @DeItaone | Hold Now, December Looms ○ Kalshi: 94% hold Wed, 74% Dec hike ○ Sept hike cited energy + expectations risk ○ Both easing: 5y5y 2.20%, ○ Oil curve backwardated @0xSweep | RSI Reset ○ RSI ~42 = Aug 14-16 levels ○ We launched from this level in Aug ○ That base ran +25% in 5 days ○ Price still +28% above it Range Lows | Swept 3 for 3 in 2026 ○ Jun: $57.8K sweep → +16% in 4 wks ○ Aug: $62.5K sweep → +32% in 3 wks ○ Sep: $75.0K sweep ○ FOMC eve → +17% in 6 days ○ Oct: $79.2K sweep, $82K reclaim pending @coinbureau | Oil Relief ○ Brent eased on reports of no joint strikes ○ Same contract: -2.3% at the low ○ Not -7% (Dec → Jan roll) ○ Curve: $116 now vs $87 for Dec '27 ○ BTC vs oil, 60d correlation: -0.3 Bull Path | Patient Fed + In-Line PCE ○ Wed: hold, no Dec signal ○ Leads to → 74% hike odds repricing ○ Thu: core PCE nowcast +0.28% m/m ○ Aug was +0.25% ○ 10Y 4.98%, -26bp in a month Market Pulse | Watch Signals ○ Close > $82K (20d/50d avg + ETF avg cost) ○ Close 0.3% keeps December live BTC swept into a Fed that only has to sound patient, but $82K is the line that turns the sweep into a launch.

$BTC | Upside Confirmation Four bullish reads from the last 48 hours, checked against the data. BTC just broke $84K. • BTC $84.6K, +2% today • IBIT's $665M: biggest day since Oct 2025 • JPMorgan ranks BTC #1 for next decade @KillaXBT | USDT.D Rolling Over ○ Bearish retest ○ Lower high on USDT.D ○ USDT.D 6.52%: -1.8% this week ○ -11% in 6 months ○ Shrinking stablecoin share = risk back on @ZynxBTC | Institutions Lean In ○ IBIT +$665M on Oct 19, biggest since Oct 2025 ○ JPMorgan 10-yr outlook ○ BTC 10%/yr -> #1 asset ○ US stocks 7.5%, gold 5.5% in the same table @davthewave | Resistance -> Support ○ Old channel ceiling now acting as support ○ Last week's retest held near $81K ○ LGC = "rapid capitalization" digital gold @BobLoukas | New Cycle Confirming ○ "Bitcoin confirming the new cycle here." ○ Upside window: 30 to 45 days ○ Long BTC, short gold into December Range Check | Our Signals ○ 29 straight closes inside Sep 21 body ○ Range: $81.1K floor, $86.6K ceiling ○ Weekly close > $82.3K = risk on Market Pulse | Watch Signals ○ Daily close > $86.6K = send it ○ Weekly close > $82.3K ○ IBIT follow-through after the $665M day ○ Oct 28: FOMC Four reads, one direction - and the last piece of the puzzle is a daily close above $86.6K.

$BTC | Coiled Floor Price Three bullish reads from the last 24 hours, checked against the data, plus where the Fed odds sit. • $IBIT +$665M inflows (biggest day of 2026) • $BTC: 28 closes inside 1x daily candle • Oct hike odds: 58% → 15% in a month @VentureCoinist | IBIT Inflow Signal ○ IBIT +$665M on Oct 19, top day of 2026 ○ Last comparable: +$503M on Aug 20 ○ BTC then ran $69.3K → $86.6K (+25%) @SuperBitcoinBro | 28-Day Coil ○ Sep 21 candle body: $81.1K – $86.6K ○ 28 straight daily closes inside it ○ BTC $82.3K, near the floor @0xSweep | RSI Turn ○ Daily RSI back to 50 from 46 ○ $87K target = top of the range ○ A close > $86.6K confirms Fed Odds | Oct 28 FOMC ○ CME FedWatch: 85% hold, 15% hike ○ Hike odds were 58% a month ago ○ @Kalshi agrees: hold 87¢, hike 12¢ ○ December still leans hike: Kalshi 74¢ Market Pulse | Watch Signals ○ Close > $86.6K = range break ○ Weekly close > $82.3K = trend hold ON ○ Lose $81.1K = the floor fails ○ IBIT inflows follow through ○ Oct 28: FOMC decision Flows are back and October hike fear is fading - BTC could be gearing up to scale the market's wall of worry.

MSCI Decision Day | $MSTR Undecided Prediction Market | Current Signal • Polymarket: 72% $MSTR gets cut Dec 31 • Current spread: 58c bid / 83c ask • ~$380 deep per side. Prior Market Event | January 2026 • Same market setup back in January. • Jan 2: 76% odds of removal. • Jan 6: MSCI held off. • Reprieve rally lasted 6 sessions (+13.5%). MSCI Announcement | Performance vs. BTC • MSCI proposal was announced Aug 14th • $MSTR +48% vs BTC +29% since • Strategy sits on MSCI's own deletion list • MSCI says, "may or may not make changes." Current Market Pulse | Potential Setup • $STRC perp funding: -58% • Funding -5% in late September. • Volume at a 3-week high. • A reprieve forces shorts to cover. • Removal = a one-time passive flow into review. • No removal = squeeze fuel. That's crowded positioning into a binary headline. A quote on @Polymarket is not consensus and how fitting would it be to see Saylor's $BTC bazooka bids reloaded as a result?

Industry Insights | Quantum, AI & Your Coins This morning @notthreadguy hosted @ilblackdragon, @0xMert_, Zcash core cryptographer @zkDragon & @tulipking for an engaging discussion on Quantum computing and its impact on digital assets. Verdict: Bunker mode = Overblown The math • AI math wins: 0 speedup on crypto's curve • Break BTC today: 1T× all mining power • Even a 10× AI leap still leaves 100B× • GPUs: 1,000× slower than ASICs • Only the US or China could even try • Quantum's first target: state comms $NEAR • Keys detached from address (name.near) • NIST post-quantum keys live in 2026 • Multi-key accounts: every scheme signs • Ships upgrades every ~6 weeks • New crypto scheme ≈ 200 lines of code $ZEC • Money only = smallest attack surface • Quantum plan posted the very next day • Upgrade now, while BTC ossifies $BTC • Kill switch: freeze, ZK-recover via seed • Satoshi coins predate seed phrases • Real tell: dormant wallets waking up • Ossification = the long-run discount Market Pulse & Signals • Hot CPI: Oct hike odds 15% → 44% • CoreWeave −12.5%, bonds ~15% yield • PTJ: "still feels like 1999" • 2027 risk: AI IPO supply > buybacks • Xbox Labs embraces AI game remixing Key takeaway: "you're far more likely to lose money going into bunker mode + smart contract risk than broken cryptography" per @mert - thanks for a great discussion Gents

AI vs. Cryptography | Bunker Mode @VitalikButerin new threat model in one line: AI may break the math we were planning to hide behind, not just the math we already knew was weak. Three buckets of crypto math: 1. Hashes still look safe 2. Elliptic curves still on the clock 3. Lattices the new risk (ML-DSA, FHE) What it means by asset, in order of exposure: $BTC | Signature Layer ○ SHA-256 + block hashes are safe ○ Never-spent addresses ○ Keys should be hidden behind a hash ○ Caution = coins on reused addresses ○ Caution = early pay-to-pubkey coins $ZEC | Past Privacy ○ Equihash mining on BLAKE2b is safe ○ Caution = encrypted notes on-chain ○ Upgrades protect future funds ○ No lattices in the proof system $NEAR | PQ Keys + MPC ○ Base layer is hashes + curves ○ Caution = post-quantum keys use ML-DSA ○ Caution = Chain signatures ○ Signing on curves (not post-quantum) ○ No PQ threshold candidate ○ Can add hash-based key anytime Nothing is broken today and all projects can add a hash-based key types. Never rush migrations, but this is two-year research risk priced like a two-week headline.

$NEAR Moonshot | Agentic Commerce @Bitwise's new "NEAR in Plain English" calls the agent economy NEAR's moonshot, and @DeutscheBank new $META Muse research sizes it. Here's the math on that moonshot: 1. The Market | Trillions in Agent Spend - US retail + services TAM: $27.4T by 2030 - $2.5T-$5.5T addressable by AI agents - $META Muse: DB sees $2.4B-$36.3B - McKinsey: $1T US, $3T-$5T global - Morgan Stanley: $190B-$385B US 2. Blockchain Rails | Why Agents Need Crypto - Cards cost 2-3% + a flat fee per payment - Too expensive for machine micropayments - DB: rail cut of just 5-10 bps per transaction 3. NEAR Perfectly Positioned | Plumbing Live - @Stripe + @tempo MPP settles with NEAR - x402 agent payments funded via Intents - Oracle x @svrn_ai checkout pilot on NEAR - Stake NEAR to pay for NEAR AI agents 4. Valuation Fundamentals | From the Paper - $30B+ cumulative Intents volume - $4.8B in September, +896% YoY - $29M fees → $5.3M buybacks since Feb - ~45% staked, inflation cut to 2.5% Our Math x Every 1% of Agent Spend - 1% of DB's $4.1T via Intents = ~$41B/yr - At 10 bps x 28.6% share: ~$12M/yr - +44% revenue run-rate, ~2.3M NEAR/yr - At 3%: +131%, offsets ~40% of issuance Cautionary Signal x Plumbing Is Not Flow - No agent channel in Intents' top-5 yet - DB's trillions are 2030 estimates, not today - Bitwise risk: agents may use other rails - Oct 1 bug ($3.8M): rails must earn trust Moonshot not required, but if/when agents pick NEAR's rails, the framework is built to onboard them.

$NEAR Protocol | Great Discussion on Rollup Check out one of the better discussions covering NEAR and its impact on this market cycle w/ @Matt_Hougan, @sal_ternullo, and @robbieklages who discuss why Bitwise launched $NRR, and how the repricing may only be starting. Key takeaways: 1. Product Market Fit | AI Free Call Option - Intents revenue justifies valuation - AI vision "comes along free for the ride" - Agentic economy heating up - Recent @Muse launch - @OpenAI DOTS release 2. Couple Weeks Late | Many Years Early - Wanted investors to catch more of the move - Crypto-native AI investors already get it - Wealth advisors are just starting to 3. Private Inference | AI wedge - NEAR facilitates private inference - Can prove no operator sees prompts - OpenRouter launch = market catalyst - NEAR agentic token consumption growth 4. Tokenomics Improving | Supply Tightening - Emissions halved 5% to 2.5% last October - New proposal: 1.6% over two years - Intents buybacks live; AI fee switch next 5. Current Cycle | Bull Market Differentiated - Bottom was in June - 130% dispersion across Top 20 (30d) - Fundamentals winning - Zombie chains fading 6. Q4 Momentum | Wirehouse Wave - Retail first, institutions follow - Expect significant ETF inflows this quarter *Our math on point 4: - Buybacks: ~17k NEAR/day - Covers ~19% of issuance at 2.5% - Covers ~30% at 1.6% Thanks for a great discussion, lads - definitely worth the full listen; available below.

$NEAR | ETF Launch Test We lined up NEAR since the $NRR listing against 10 crypto ETF launches and the $ZCSH / $ZEC template. Base Case | Most Launches Fade • Typical launch: -13% by day 20 • Only 3 of 10 were up at day 20 • All 3 had ETF volume GROWING in weeks 2-3 Best-Case Fractal Scenario | $ZCSH • $ZEC chopped for 9 sessions after listing • Then +43% by day 10, +90% by day 20 • ZCSH volume: $20M → $36M → $74M/day by week NRR ETF Pulse | Day 2 Since Launch • $50M of creations across two prints • 9.81M NEAR held by the trust, • 7.2M already staked on-chain • Day-2 volume $19.9M vs ZCSH's $14.2M Decision Window | Days 4-10 • Tons of market catalyst within this window • Issuance-cut vote (2.5% → 1.6%) • @token2049 Oct 7 Confirmation = daily close above $5.59 with week-2 volume holding above $20M/day. Fade = volume rolling under $15M, the path 7 of 10 launches took. NEAR +4.5% from the listing close, ahead of the typical launch + in step with the ZEC template - volume could decide which way it goes.