BTC is testing the ~$80k level (recent lows near $79.3k) as risk-off hits ahead of the Fed decision Wednesday. Markets price ~90% odds of a hold in the 3.75–4.00% range, but a December hike is heavily favored (~80%). Middle East tensions keep Brent crude elevated (~$115), feeding inflation worries and supporting “higher for longer” rates. BTC is trading more like a risk asset than a pure hedge right now sensitive to hawkish Fed guidance, hot oil, and ETF outflows. Watch Wednesday’s tone plus Thursday’s GDP/PCE data. A dovish surprise could spark a bounce; a hawkish one risks more downside toward the $77–78k zone. Not financial advice DYOR.