🚨 Elon Musk just said most of the 200+ AI cloud companies are going to die. I checked the bond market. It already agrees with him. This weekend he posted that debt markets have "almost entirely shut off" money to anyone without real revenue outside AI data centers. Then this: "200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many." Neoclouds borrow billions to buy Nvidia GPUs and rent them out to AI labs. The biggest one is CoreWeave. Roughly $50B in debt. This month its 2032 bonds closed at a record 15% yield and its 2031 bonds pushed past 16%. Default insurance now implies over a 60% chance of default within five years. A year ago it was about 30%. The day the bonds cracked, CoreWeave fell more than 15%, Oracle 9%, Nebius 10% and Dell 11%. CoreWeave's CEO says the customer backlog more than covers all its debt. He might be right, and it might not matter. You borrow at 15% to buy a chip Nvidia replaces with a faster one every year. If the power hookup runs late, it sits in a box while the interest runs. Musk says we're going to see "a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers." The craziest part? If CoreWeave can't sell its capacity, Nvidia agreed to buy it, all the way to 2032. The company selling the chips is backstopping the company buying them. Lucent and Nortel did this in 2000. They lent telecom startups money to buy Lucent and Nortel gear. You know how that ended. Gartner now predicts over 80% of neoclouds won't be independent by 2030. Meanwhile SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs. Musk's reason: investment grade, plus Starlink and launch revenue. Then he added, "SpaceX is not buying any neoclouds. Pointless." Every neocloud has customers. None of them has a Starlink.