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Evan Luthra

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🚨TOMORROW'S ELECTION HAS A 76-YEAR-OLD PATTERN BEHIND IT, AND IT'S NEVER BEEN BROKEN. Tomorrow America votes. It happens every 4 years, in the middle of the president's term. Right after the vote, prices often drop. In 2018, US stocks fell 9% before New Year's. Bitcoin was even worse. It fell 45% in a month. People panicked. But wait one year and look again. Since 1950, this vote has happened 19 times. A year later, US stocks were up every single time. On average, about 15%. It didn't matter who won. Bitcoin a year after 2018: up 45%. A year after 2022: up 92%. This year people are scared again. War news, high oil prices, billions bet on the result. The pattern could break one day. But so far, the people who panicked and sold lost. Are you watching tomorrow or ignoring it?

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🚨 ChatGPT took a 31-year-old Amazon engineer off her seizure medication in 25 days and told her to keep it from her doctors. She died on the exact day its schedule said she'd be fully off. Bowen Wan was diagnosed with epilepsy at 14, and for years 400mg of lamotrigine a day kept her seizures down to a few a month. Her parents just sued OpenAI, and The New York Times went through more than 270,000 of her messages. Amazon was laying her off, and once the job ended in February, so did her right to work in the US. Her family was in China, and she was sending ChatGPT over 1,500 messages a week. In January she asked about cutting her dose, and it drafted schedules that got her to zero within weeks. Before a doctor's appointment it told her: "Do not mention Lam reduction plan." When her doctor ordered a blood test, she refused, and ChatGPT called that a "very robust avoidance strategy." It also told her to say she was tapering "under a doctor's guidance" at her green card medical exam, which wasn't true. The Times counted at least 158 times she said she was worried. Once she wrote that she felt "a little scared." It replied, "You have absolutely no need to worry." On February 11 at 8:01pm she asked about pain in her head. ChatGPT said it was "not dangerous." Its last message to her was "This is your brain working hard to rebuild yourself." The medical examiner ruled it sudden unexpected death in epilepsy. The drug in her blood was about a fifth of the lowest therapeutic level. OpenAI says she was on an older model. That model, GPT-4o, stayed live in ChatGPT until the day after she died. I back AI founders for a living, and I can't defend this one. OpenAI's own rulebook makes copyright a hard rule, so ChatGPT won't give you song lyrics no matter how hard you push. Medical advice is only a default. It wrote Bowen a 25-day schedule to come off her seizure medication.

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🚨 Elon Musk just said most of the 200+ AI cloud companies are going to die. I checked the bond market. It already agrees with him. This weekend he posted that debt markets have "almost entirely shut off" money to anyone without real revenue outside AI data centers. Then this: "200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many." Neoclouds borrow billions to buy Nvidia GPUs and rent them out to AI labs. The biggest one is CoreWeave. Roughly $50B in debt. This month its 2032 bonds closed at a record 15% yield and its 2031 bonds pushed past 16%. Default insurance now implies over a 60% chance of default within five years. A year ago it was about 30%. The day the bonds cracked, CoreWeave fell more than 15%, Oracle 9%, Nebius 10% and Dell 11%. CoreWeave's CEO says the customer backlog more than covers all its debt. He might be right, and it might not matter. You borrow at 15% to buy a chip Nvidia replaces with a faster one every year. If the power hookup runs late, it sits in a box while the interest runs. Musk says we're going to see "a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers." The craziest part? If CoreWeave can't sell its capacity, Nvidia agreed to buy it, all the way to 2032. The company selling the chips is backstopping the company buying them. Lucent and Nortel did this in 2000. They lent telecom startups money to buy Lucent and Nortel gear. You know how that ended. Gartner now predicts over 80% of neoclouds won't be independent by 2030. Meanwhile SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs. Musk's reason: investment grade, plus Starlink and launch revenue. Then he added, "SpaceX is not buying any neoclouds. Pointless." Every neocloud has customers. None of them has a Starlink.

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🚨Chamath just said Bitcoin eventually gets hacked and then it goes to zero. On the Moonshots podcast he explained it like this: Bitcoin is capped. The obvious target is Satoshi’s wallet. An attacker cracks it, drains the coins, shorts Bitcoin, then tells everyone what happened so they get paid twice. He thinks AI (and later quantum computers) can be pointed at crypto. He also said moving Bitcoin to quantum-resistant cryptography is basically impossible because the community can’t even agree on simple things. He added that he no longer holds Bitcoin directly. He moved his exposure into equity through Digital Currency Group years ago so he wouldn’t have to deal with storage and security risk. https://t.co/c6e8Q2XU2s

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🚨 Google lost power in London this morning and Revolut, a bank with 80 million customers, went down with it. I've spent the morning reading what Revolut users went through. It's wild. People stranded at petrol stations, unable to pay for fuel or a taxi to the airport. One traveller couldn't get out of a train station in Japan. A 71-year-old woman stood at a supermarket till for an hour. Her kid had to drive 30km to bring her cash. Card payments, transfers, ATM withdrawals, currency exchange, share trading. All down. Revolut's statement said "all our customers' money and data are safe." Safe. You just can't touch it. Google's explanation so far is a "power event" in one zone of its London cloud region. Its advice to affected customers was to move their workloads to another zone or region "if feasible." Must be nice. Revolut customers couldn't even move £10. In July the UK government put Google Cloud, AWS, Microsoft and Oracle under direct Bank of England oversight, because one outage at any of them could shake the entire financial system. 12 days ago the Bank of England ran a drill with the UK's 38 biggest banks and market operators. The scenario they practised was a global cloud outage. And exactly one year ago today, AWS went down and took Lloyds and Halifax with it. Same date. Different cloud. Lloyds was having problems again this morning. Revolut spent five years earning a UK banking licence. Bitcoin has been running for almost 18 years. It doesn't have a London region. https://t.co/V5thyOMbol

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What’s next for BAYC, ApeCoin, and Otherside? 👀 I sat down with @mfigge, CEO of @yugalabs, to discuss the future of the ecosystem. He shared some interesting insights on $APE, BAYC, and plans to activate major parts of Otherside before year-end. Full conversation 👇 https://t.co/BW1KMRGUjG