A 2013 Excel power-law fit (never refitted) still tracks the middle of Bitcoin’s price range 13+ years later. Peak multiples have compressed hard (15.5x → 1.8x) while bottoms have stayed in a tight 0.55–0.7x band. Currently ~0.82x the line. The model only knows “days since genesis.” No halvings, no ETFs, no macro. That it remains relevant is the interesting part. Base vs bull paths for the next year are useful framing, not forecasts.
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