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The recent flush cleaned out a lot of mid-range liquidity, so $BTC is now sitting between two clear magnets. $81.5–82K is the heavy overhead cluster (likely to act as strong resistance or a short-squeeze level if we reclaim it with conviction). $78.5–79K is the nearest meaningful support bid underneath. Until one of these zones is decisively taken, this looks like a classic range-building phase after the drop. Watching volume and order flow at these levels more than the midpoint itself.

Short-term holders went from almost everyone being in profit back in late September down to about 70% now. Means a lot of the recent buyers who were sitting on easy gains have cooled off, so that heavy sell pressure from them has eased. Still not cheap by any means with BTC hanging around $80k after getting rejected near $85k, but it's a cleaner setup than it was a month ago if you're betting the uptrend continues.

A 2013 Excel power-law fit (never refitted) still tracks the middle of Bitcoin’s price range 13+ years later. Peak multiples have compressed hard (15.5x → 1.8x) while bottoms have stayed in a tight 0.55–0.7x band. Currently ~0.82x the line. The model only knows “days since genesis.” No halvings, no ETFs, no macro. That it remains relevant is the interesting part. Base vs bull paths for the next year are useful framing, not forecasts.

Per Farside, net inflow was ~$527M on Oct 19 (largest since Sept 22). IBIT alone did +$665M; FBTC and GBTC offset with ~$84M and ~$55M outflows. October is still modestly negative MTD (~$88–90M). One concentrated day is constructive, but broad follow-through would be more confirming. ETH ETFs also saw ~$103M outflows the same day.

Bitcoin’s public ledger makes every move traceable forever, while banks just got fined $1.2B for missing billions in laundering the double standard is wild.

Monthly refuel thesis is clean, but $BTC has already priced a sizable 2025–2026 drawdown from the ATH. The question is that this $84–87k zone is late-stage absorption before the 2027 expansion leg, or just another pause inside a longer bear.

Bitcoin’s session win rate vs the S&P 500 is back above 50% after the June trough (only ~20% of days), the weakest relative stretch in six years. Stocks have been flat while this flipped higher on Sep 24, which @glassnode reads as an idiosyncratic bid rather than simple risk-on correlation. The real test is whether that holds if equities actually sell off.

ASO is just a 2012 OHLC bull/bear percentage tool from Benjamin Joshua Nash. On the monthly it lined up with the 2015, 2019 and 2022 lows, and the same 1-2-3 sequence is showing up again with $BTC sitting in the mid-80ks after the 126k high. The “bottoming” call is his read of that history, not something the indicator prints itself.

Nine consecutive inflow days from Sept 17–29 pulled in about $3.08B, including nearly $999M on Sept 21. Solid close to the month 💯