The market’s concern is no longer just inflation—can the AI investment boom be sustained? 1. Rising oil prices can no longer push up U.S. Treasury yields. Last night, Treasury yields continued to decline, while tech stocks plunged, signaling that market capital is reassessing returns and reallocating assets. The old trading logic was: rising oil prices → fears of higher inflation → expectations of further Fed rate hikes → selling stocks and Treasuries. This was also why U.S. Treasury yields remained stubbornly high recently. The current logic reflects concerns over the return on AI infrastructure investments—lower yields and defaults could have a more severe impact on economic growth, prompting large-scale buying of U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year Treasury yield falling below 5% is essentially a reconfiguration of risk. 2. The tech stock crisis has not yet evolved into a uniform, global sell-off. Last night, semiconductor and tech stocks were sold off, but defensive sectors and low-P/E defensive stocks continued to rise, indicating a shift in market sentiment. 3. Next week, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet will release their earnings reports. After Meta’s results, Wall Street has changed its earnings evaluation criteria. It is highly likely all three cloud giants will exceed expectations—but this does not necessarily mean AI stocks will rebound. If AI investments erode free cash flow and force companies to issue debt to fund operations, it could further fuel market concerns. Meanwhile, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision. One positive development: the expected timing for the next Fed rate hike has been pushed back from December to January (due to the stock market decline, the urgency to hike has diminished).