Iran and Trump are trading barbs; the market has gradually become desensitized to such news, and expectations are growing for significant volatility by year-end. Trump called Iran a failed nation, while Iran responded that Trump’s remarks reveal desperation. Trump also stated tonight that “the war with Iran may end soon.” Yet oil prices have shown no clear reaction—the market has grown numb to such information. WTI oil reached its peak in March, with subsequent highs declining. However, since July, oil price lows have been rising. First, oil prices overall are showing a converging trend, with the convergence peak likely occurring by year-end, coinciding with Christmas, which could trigger market volatility. Second, in the upcoming midterm elections, Trump’s Republican Party is expected to lose at least the House of Representatives, leading to a shift in policy dominance—a change that may introduce market volatility before year-end. Third, the temporary budget is set to expire by year-end, prompting another round of congressional voting on the budget. If no final agreement is reached, the government could face another shutdown. Fourth, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to raise rates once more in December; if the dot plot signals a hawkish or moderately hawkish stance, it will constitute another negative factor.