Gold is down $114 today while the 10 year yield fell 19 bps. Wednesday's close: $4,140. Low so far: $4,026. That's the lowest gold has traded since August 3. On paper: Bonds rallied. The 10 year is down to 4.95%. The dollar is down a touch. That should be a good day for gold. Yet gold is down 2.8% and silver is down almost 6%. That's the tell. The real sequence: Stocks sold off, the S&P down 1.4% > the VIX jumped about 19% > money ran into bonds > traders sold what they could, metals included > oil near $100 kept the inflation worry alive. This is a cash raise. Gold is getting sold with everything else. The rate story still favours it. What I'm watching from here: 1. $4,043 was the August 4 low. Gold is under it now. A New York close back above it is the first sign the selling is done. 2. Below, $4,019 is the August 3 low, then $4,000. 3. The sign I want: stocks keep falling and gold stops falling with them. 4. The Fed is October 28. Falling yields help gold once the forced selling stops. Watch the S&P, not the headline. FREE GOLD NEWS DAY PLAYBOOK COMMENT "NEWS" AND I'LL DM IT TO YOU. (Follow me first so it lands.)