
I THINK PEOPLE ARE CONFUSING “NOT EVERYTHING IS PUMPING” WITH “THE MARKET ISN’T BULLISH.” I see something different. I think we’re in CRYPTO SPRING. And spring doesn’t mean straight up. It means the environment is slowly changing underneath the market. Look at today: BTC remains above its major daily + weekly moving averages. Bitcoin ETFs just saw roughly $527M of net inflows. VIX has fallen materially from the recent stress spike. The S&P 500 reclaimed its daily 50 EMA. The dollar pulled back. Oil pulled back. BTC continues showing clear relative strength. But… ETHBTC is still weak. Altcoin breadth is still weak. Nasdaq hasn’t fully repaired. Small caps haven’t fully repaired. Yields are still too high. That doesn’t invalidate the bullish thesis. IMO, it tells us where we are in the process. Bitcoin is leading. The broader market is waiting for confirmation. This is exactly why I keep calling it spring instead of summer. The flowers aren’t all blooming yet. But the ground is thawing. My bias remains UP over the larger cycle. There will be corrections. There will be consolidations. There will be moments where everyone thinks the move is over. But unless the structure materially breaks, I think those are pauses inside a larger recovery. And eventually? I still expect this cycle to end the way crypto cycles usually end: with everyone arriving late and a parabolic move that makes the early stages look obvious in hindsight. We’re not there yet. That’s the point.


