Filecoin's genesis vesting just ended. The price did most of its move before that. ★ What changed on Oct 15 → Vesting for @protocollabs and @FilFoundation, set at the 2020 launch, is complete. Filecoin's blog says daily new filecoin:native supply drops ~75%. → @FilecoinTLDR's model puts current supply growth at +286K FIL/day: ~104M a year, or ~12.5% of the 835M circulating. → A ~75% cut takes that to ~72K/day, about 3% a year. Their base case reaches +49K/day in 2027. → The Solstice upgrade also routes more block rewards to providers with paying customers and burns the unearned share. ★ What the price did (@coingecko) → FIL is +44% in 30 days, vs +6.7% for $BTC. → Almost all of it came between Sep 17 and Sep 27: $0.81 → $1.13 (+41%). Since then it has ranged $0.99–$1.25 and sits at ~$1.14. → Perp open interest is $513M against a $953M market cap, about 54%. → Caveat: the supply figures are a model (base case, updated Sep 29), not realized data. And with OI at 54% of market cap, part of the move is likely leverage, which can unwind either way. The supply cut was scheduled six years ago. Was it priced in by Sep 27, or does it only start to matter once paying-customer demand shows up onchain?