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As the midterm elections enter their final stretch, an unexpectedly high inflation report has become a major blow to Trump and the Republican Party. U.S. prices surged again in September, with energy costs skyrocketing: gasoline rose 9.1% in a single month, up over 34% year-over-year, while heating oil jumped 74% annually. Living expenses, which have remained elevated since the pandemic, have worsened under the added pressure of tariffs and the Iran conflict, fueling growing voter frustration. Rents, which had been cooling, unexpectedly rebounded as businesses passed on rising costs and service prices rose in tandem. Although the overall U.S. economy remains relatively stable, high inflation has pushed up Treasury yields, and the Fed’s sustained high interest rates are making it increasingly difficult for ordinary Americans to afford mortgages. The White House moved urgently to stabilize oil prices: U.S. military forces deployed to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump even eased certain sanctions on Russia to secure diesel supplies. Yet the situation took a sharp turn for the worse as Iran and Houthi forces intensified their counterattacks, with 18 vessels targeted in the Middle East over two weeks and Saudi Aramco’s headquarters also struck. Analysts believe Iran is deliberately disrupting maritime security and driving up oil prices to pressure the White House ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.

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