ok so CPI just dropped & honestly, core came in hotter than expected. let me walk u through what i am seeing. first, the numbers. core CPI m/m came in at 0.3% against 0.2% expected, core CPI y/y was 2.6% against 2.5% expected. headline CPI m/m was 0.6%, exactly as expected, while headline CPI y/y was 3.7% against 3.6% expected. the headline number was already priced in, bcz gas averaged $4.33 a gallon in September. but the bigger concern here is core inflation. it came in above expectations, which tells us inflation is still proving difficult to bring down. that's the part i'm paying more attention to. now, let's look at how BTC reacted. BTC was sitting around 83.4K when the numbers dropped. almost immediately, it wicked down to 82.7K on the biggest volume candle of the day. the chart i attached was taken at 6:02 PM IST, right after the release. as i am writing this, it is around 82.8K & honestly has not bounced yet. it is just sitting on that low like it is deciding what to do. why does this matter for the Fed & the dollar? the Fed already hiked in September to 3.75 to 4.00%, & most officials still expect one more hike before the year ends. after the weak jobs report, october hike odds had dropped to around 22%, so markets were starting to feel a little more relaxed. but a hotter inflation print could bring the possibility of another hike back into focus, especially heading into December. here's how that can play out, hotter inflation can push markets to price in a tighter Fed policy. that can send yields higher, strengthen the dollar & put pressure on BTC. so if u see the dollar index pushing up while BTC dips, that is the same trade showing up in two places. we have actually seen this before. in June, CPI came in cooler & BTC pumped from 62K to 64.9K within minutes. then, in August, core CPI came in at 0.3% against 0.2% expected, the exact same miss as today. BTC dumped to 76K before fully recovering within half an hour. so the first move can be a trap. that is why i am not trusting the first wick. levels i am watching on the @CoinDCX BTC/USDT chart. resistance: 83,000 first, then 83,500 to 84,000, then 84,350, then 86,500 to 86,725. support: 82,730 which is today’s low & is being tested right now, then 81,000 to 81,500, then 80,100 to 80,400. BTC has been stuck between 80K & 87K for weeks, so this is an important zone to watch. the next move could tell us a lot about where price wants to go from here. here's how i'm looking at both scenarios. bear case: if a 1H candle closes below 82,730, i'll be watching the 81K to 81.5K zone next. if that support breaks too, the next area on my chart is 80.1K to 80.4K. bull case: if 82,730 holds & buyers start stepping in, BTC needs to reclaim 83K first. after that, i want to see a 1H candle close above the 83.5K to 84K zone. if that happens, 84,350 & then 86.5K become the next levels to watch. the rule i am following is simple. do not chase the wick. wait for the candle to close, bcz CPI wicks love humbling people. my honest take is that a hot core number with December hike risk makes bounces more likely to fade than run, unless BTC can reclaim 84K. until that happens i am staying cautious & letting the chart prove me wrong. this is not financial advice, just how i am reading the chart. please manage your risk and do not get liquidated over a CPI wick. what's your read on this move, bull or bear? tell me below. #LearnKaroCryptoKaro