$APT Setup | LONG
Aptos just finished its four-year token unlock. Monthly emissions dropped around 60%. Price is holding near $0.83 after a strong four-week run, but on-chain stablecoin liquidity is down 17.5%. That divergence tells me to keep size small and wait for confirmation.
Trade Plan
Direction: Long
Entry Zone: 0.8280 – 0.8350
Stop Loss: 0.8150
TP1: 0.8650
TP2: 0.8950
TP3: 0.9400
Why This Makes Sense
• The unlock overhang is gone. Monthly APT emissions fell from ~11.3M to ~4.5M tokens, removing a persistent supply pressure that kept rallies capped.
• Price is defending the $0.82–$0.83 zone. This area acted as support after the recent dip, and the 24h low of $0.7880 held cleanly.
• Momentum is cooling but not broken. RSI on the 4H sits near 60 after peaking above 70, which is typical mid-trend behavior rather than exhaustion.
• The first real resistance sits around $0.94–$0.96. If buyers reclaim that band, the path toward $1.00 opens up.
I'm watching whether stablecoin liquidity stabilizes while price holds above $0.83. If it keeps bleeding, this rally looks supply-driven, not demand-driven. That's why I prefer confirmation over catching the exact bottom.
Risk Note
The main risk here is a liquidity drain. If stablecoins on Aptos keep falling, the ecosystem loses dry powder and the token can drift lower even without a fresh catalyst. Keep your position size modest. A close below $0.82 invalidates the setup, and I'd step aside rather than average down.
