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Old coins are beating Bitcoin this month. Over a year, almost all of them are still deep in the red. ★ The 30-day picture → $BTC is up 7.5% in 30 days. 11 of the 14 old large caps I track did better. → filecoin:native +40.0%, algorand:native +29.8%, hedera-hashgraph:native +23.3%, bitcoin-cash:native +22.4%, litecoin:native +19.9%, $ADA +19.2%. → The laggards are $XRP (+3.2%), $DOGE (+1.9%) and $TRX (−2.4%). ★ The 12-month picture → Every one of them except TRX is down 34% to 62% over the year. BTC is down 25%. → $ADA is −62% and $DOT is −61%. Most sit 85–98% below their all-time highs. → So this is a bounce from very low levels. It is not a new high for anyone. ★ What's behind the moves → @litecoin already has a spot ETF trading (@CanaryFunds' LTCC), listed under the generic standards. → @Cardano, @Polkadot and @hedera ETF proposals are still stuck in the SEC's staking review, which opened on June 30. There is no confirmed decision date. → @Filecoin has the clearest catalyst. Protocol Labs and Foundation vesting is reported to end on Oct 15, which would sharply cut new FIL issuance. → For most of the others I couldn't find coin-specific news. They moved together, which looks like rotation. ★ This week the bounce is being tested → Over 7 days: BCH −12.8%, HBAR −10.4%, XLM −9.9%, LTC −9.8%, ALGO −8.7%. → FIL (+3.5%), DOT (+4.1%) and ATOM (+10.4%) are still holding up. What I'm watching next: → Oct 15: does FIL hold its gains once the vesting change is in the price? → Any SEC signal on staking ETFs for ADA, DOT and HBAR. → Whether the old coins keep beating BTC if BTC dominance turns back up. → Caveat: a 30-day outperformance after a −40% to −60% year is what a relief rally looks like too. One month of data can't tell the two apart. Which of these has real usage behind it, and which is only moving with the group?

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