
$NBIS fell 7.4% on Thursday, the day the FT reported OpenAI's annualized revenue at about $50B rather than the roughly $70B that had been going around. CNBC confirmed the $50B. One day earlier, Rosenblatt started covering Nebius at Buy with a $304 target. Nothing about Nebius changed between those two days. A customer's customer got re-counted. The gap is mostly a counting question. The $70B figure was a gross number that included sales through partners. The $50B is closer to what OpenAI keeps. Both numbers describe a company spending heavily on compute. I weigh what a supplier charges over what anyone projects. Nebius raised its on-demand GPU prices 17% to 21% from Oct 1, its second increase since May. You don't raise prices on customers twice in five months if the machines sit idle. The same week, Nebius's COO sold 500,000 shares through a preset plan, about half his stake, and Lambda, a private rival, was reported raising $4B ahead of an IPO. Plan sales tell me about someone's tax calendar. A rival raising $4B tells me the money still wants in. I own NBIS. It closed Friday at $221.07. What would change my mind is a price cut, not a revenue revision two steps down the chain.