
So fast! It’s already been six years since Filecoin launched—and it peaked right at launch! Good news: The annual release of 68.3 million FIL will stop. Bad news: You’d need a 400x+ price increase just to break even! With the vesting period ending, this doesn’t mean no new FIL supply will be created. Storage providers will still receive block rewards—but the token release structure has changed: 25% is unlocked immediately, and the remaining 75% unlocks gradually over 180 days. In my view, this marks a significant turning point as Filecoin’s economic model enters a new phase. For years, the market had to absorb massive vesting releases; now, that supply pressure is about to disappear—a development worth watching over the long term. But don’t equate reduced new supply directly with price increases. Whether FIL can truly gain momentum depends on real storage demand, ecosystem adoption, investor interest, and whether the market can absorb the existing circulating supply. Improved supply conditions are just the first step. What ultimately determines how far FIL can go is whether demand can keep pace.
