A 5m Bitcoin Up or Down market is a coin flip on paper. Before it opens, nobody knows the output, so Up and Down trade on opinion, not information. 1. Prices & Probability On Polymarket a share pays $1 if its side wins and $0 if it loses. A price of 50¢ means the market thinks that side has about a 50% chance. If a side's real chance is higher than the price you pay, the bet has positive @EVplusAI Pay 50¢ for something that wins 55% of the time and you expect about 5¢ of profit per share (55¢ back on 50¢ paid) over many tries, while any single try can still go to zero. A small edge. 2. What Premarket Value Buy does It buys before the market starts when it spots the edge, the bigger it is, the higher price this strategy is willing to pay. Self-adjusted based on market condition. 3. Streaks are normal A small edge is invisible over a handful of trades. Take a bettor who wins 55% of even-money bets. Over 100 bets there's roughly a 65% chance of at least one run of 5 losses in a row, and about a 92% chance of a run of 4. That's the day you start doubting everything, and it says almost nothing about the edge. Only the long run does. The app says it plainly: "Profit and loss swing hard, so make sure you can handle the swings." Not financial advice.