If / When $HYPE breaks ATH, I think we could see a rally till at least $130 The narrative is strong. https://t.co/Jl4wFw8dSY
$BTC looks scary af here 🫢 But honestly this is a good price to do some degen long. https://t.co/2yKaMaalXn
The bull case for $PAPER is actually BTC dumping hard from here 😂 https://t.co/abhF0kqyUQ
Stress test #2 for @papertrade_xyz? House Funds just slipped under $3.4M. Traders are ~$107M net long ($92M BTC + $15M ETH), so a ~3% move up and the house is at zero. The $PAPER emergency trigger (100/$1) watches the LP balance, not House Funds. LP still shows $4.77M, because open trader profit only hits LP once it’s closed. So the House can go underwater while LP sits around $2M, and the farming meant to refill it switches on too late. Personally I think the trigger should follow House Funds, so farmers show up when the house is actually in danger.
Was off-guard with the 10m size as priority 😂 Whale would farm the hell out of robinhood:0xaa3b129e4906009e228a060340601260de068ff5 before others. The most fun thing that can happen right now is BTC keep pumping and in the weekend to put pressure on farmers. (The LP will go to deep negative, so no dividend) paperlined
A 5m Bitcoin Up or Down market is a coin flip on paper. Before it opens, nobody knows the output, so Up and Down trade on opinion, not information. 1. Prices & Probability On Polymarket a share pays $1 if its side wins and $0 if it loses. A price of 50¢ means the market thinks that side has about a 50% chance. If a side's real chance is higher than the price you pay, the bet has positive @EVplusAI Pay 50¢ for something that wins 55% of the time and you expect about 5¢ of profit per share (55¢ back on 50¢ paid) over many tries, while any single try can still go to zero. A small edge. 2. What Premarket Value Buy does It buys before the market starts when it spots the edge, the bigger it is, the higher price this strategy is willing to pay. Self-adjusted based on market condition. 3. Streaks are normal A small edge is invisible over a handful of trades. Take a bettor who wins 55% of even-money bets. Over 100 bets there's roughly a 65% chance of at least one run of 5 losses in a row, and about a 92% chance of a run of 4. That's the day you start doubting everything, and it says almost nothing about the edge. Only the long run does. The app says it plainly: "Profit and loss swing hard, so make sure you can handle the swings." Not financial advice.
The @Polymarket Remaster is almost done, and I think I figured out the way to benefit both side: Builder and Users. It will start with 90% lower fee, from 0.1% to 0.01% for both maker and taker trade. Would be ready in October. https://t.co/ejARRz9yvP
Quick update on what I'm building for @EVplusAI: → Soft-testing the crypto bot on @predictdotfun and @Outcomexyz → The Polymarket bot has done pretty well over the last 30 days → Working on a stable version of the onchain terminal. Multi-chain trading takes real work to build, but it'll pay off long term → Also building out the LP strategy. The hook has been approved by Uniswap, and the Kyberswap whitelist should come soon. $EVP
First step for @EVplusAI 's hook Got approved by @Uniswap https://t.co/hkKQf75VFN
