Sat down with @realDhruvSuri this week and he calls this stretch the winner's curse. Assets keep going up, everyone feels clever, and the cracks underneath get wider while that is happening. We went through the liquidity picture with Paul not that long ago and it was not a comforting read, and since then the MOVE index has started to lift while the stock market has mostly shrugged. What bothers me is how narrow it is. The S&P looks fine if you only watch the index, but a lot of the names underneath are already down and the gains are sitting in a handful of AI stocks. Dhruv's read is that you have dot-com style concentration sitting on top of a land cycle that looks more like the end than the middle, so closer to the GFC than to 2000. Into the GFC, stocks still ripped something like 25 percent in four to six weeks. That is the part that catches people who are waiting for it to look obvious. On the land-cycle math, the latest plausible peak lands around September 2028, which is also a Shemitah year. He is not saying it waits that long. His actual window is more like the next three to six months, and tops have a habit of drifting before they break.