Right lads, we’ve got our first proper answer from what we have been tracking all day. This morning the pressure was all moving in the same direction. Oil above $100, the dollar firm, long term Treasury yields ripping higher, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq coming off record highs and crypto getting hit. The US 10 year eventually pushed through the 5.35% level I had marked and reached 5.364%, a fresh 24 year high. Then something important happened. The US sold $39 billion of 10 year debt at 5.300% and demand was seriously strong. Bid to cover came in at 2.77, indirect buyers took roughly 80.3% and dealers were left with only around 2.5%. The long end backed away from the highs and, importantly, our 5.40% stress level was never traded. Then came the FOMC minutes. I would not call them dovish. Almost all Fed participants still saw inflation risks tilted to the upside. Some also discussed how the AI buildout could push demand ahead of supply, while a couple specifically tied the combination of energy disruption and AI related demand to the risk of broader price pressures. Another hike remains firmly on the table, but there was no new hawkish shock strong enough to restart the bond selloff. At the same time we got another counterweight from energy. The IEA is accelerating oil stocks that were already pledged under its March programme and prioritising diesel because that market remains extremely tight. Around 325 million barrels have already been released and roughly another 100 million of previously pledged stocks could still reach the market. Important distinction there. That is NOT a brand new 100 million barrel programme. Brent has moved back toward $100 and our $103 to $105 escalation zone never triggered. So after everything we watched develop today, I think the cleanest way of describing where we are now is this. FIRST RELIEF TEST. NOT RISK ON CONFIRMATION. The morning macro map worked. The pressure built exactly where we were watching it. But buyers finally appeared at the long end, the Fed did not add another hawkish surprise and some of the immediate pressure in oil has eased. Now we find out whether that was genuine exhaustion or simply a pause. 5.35% on the US 10 year goes straight back on my board if yields start climbing again. 5.40% remains the major untraded stress trigger. Brent losing $100 would strengthen the inflation relief case, while another move toward $103 to $105 puts the energy problem straight back in front of us. And tomorrow we get the next serious test with $22 billion of 30 year US debt coming to market. That auction is going to tell us a lot about whether real buyers are genuinely prepared to keep absorbing the long end at these levels. Been a seriously interesting day watching this one develop. CCA | EireX