I literally said this on my instagram yesterday, less than 24 hours another incident happens and for me strengthens what I was saying. Test, Test, test & GOOOOO For the foreseeable future, If I can’t hold it or hit it with a hammer then I don’t want it. My bitcoin:native is safe, I hope!
Something isn’t adding up across global financial markets, and the deeper you look into today’s data, the more concerning the picture becomes. Brent crude has climbed back above $106 as the Middle East conflict continues disrupting energy supplies. Europe is now examining another windfall tax on oil and gas companies, while new research suggests European households and businesses could face elevated natural gas prices well into 2027. But energy is only part of the story. France’s central bank is estimating just 0.1% economic growth for Q3, with businesses reporting weaker demand and mounting financial pressure. Meanwhile, China’s consumer slowdown is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. LVMH has just reported a 5% contraction in its flagship fashion division, significantly worse than analysts expected. Now look at Wall Street. The $SPX has gained approximately 14% this year, yet more than 200 companies in the index are actually down. The median constituent has returned barely 4%. That’s a remarkable divergence for a market sitting near record territory. Technology has been carrying much of the rally, particularly companies benefiting from the AI investment boom. Yet today, semiconductor stocks came under significant selling pressure while energy companies outperformed. And just hours ago, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that inflation pressures are spreading beyond energy, strengthening the argument for restrictive monetary policy. This is where things become interesting for bitcoin:native , ethereum:native and the wider crypto market. Expensive energy feeds inflation. Persistent inflation complicates the Federal Reserve’s decisions. Higher borrowing costs put pressure on equity valuations and financial conditions, which can ultimately affect liquidity and speculative risk appetite. That doesn’t mean a market crash is coming. It means the strength of the headline indices isn’t telling us the whole story. Wednesday brings another major US CPI release, alongside a week of bank earnings and important semiconductor results from ASML and TSMC. I’ll be watching Brent, $DXY, Treasury yields, Nasdaq market breadth and $BTC together. If those markets start confirming the same direction, we’ll have a much clearer picture of where capital is moving. For now, the real question isn’t how much higher the indices can climb. It’s how much pressure the underlying economy can absorb while they do. ☘️ EireX | Celtic Connect Alpha
Right lads, we’ve got our first proper answer from what we have been tracking all day. This morning the pressure was all moving in the same direction. Oil above $100, the dollar firm, long term Treasury yields ripping higher, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq coming off record highs and crypto getting hit. The US 10 year eventually pushed through the 5.35% level I had marked and reached 5.364%, a fresh 24 year high. Then something important happened. The US sold $39 billion of 10 year debt at 5.300% and demand was seriously strong. Bid to cover came in at 2.77, indirect buyers took roughly 80.3% and dealers were left with only around 2.5%. The long end backed away from the highs and, importantly, our 5.40% stress level was never traded. Then came the FOMC minutes. I would not call them dovish. Almost all Fed participants still saw inflation risks tilted to the upside. Some also discussed how the AI buildout could push demand ahead of supply, while a couple specifically tied the combination of energy disruption and AI related demand to the risk of broader price pressures. Another hike remains firmly on the table, but there was no new hawkish shock strong enough to restart the bond selloff. At the same time we got another counterweight from energy. The IEA is accelerating oil stocks that were already pledged under its March programme and prioritising diesel because that market remains extremely tight. Around 325 million barrels have already been released and roughly another 100 million of previously pledged stocks could still reach the market. Important distinction there. That is NOT a brand new 100 million barrel programme. Brent has moved back toward $100 and our $103 to $105 escalation zone never triggered. So after everything we watched develop today, I think the cleanest way of describing where we are now is this. FIRST RELIEF TEST. NOT RISK ON CONFIRMATION. The morning macro map worked. The pressure built exactly where we were watching it. But buyers finally appeared at the long end, the Fed did not add another hawkish surprise and some of the immediate pressure in oil has eased. Now we find out whether that was genuine exhaustion or simply a pause. 5.35% on the US 10 year goes straight back on my board if yields start climbing again. 5.40% remains the major untraded stress trigger. Brent losing $100 would strengthen the inflation relief case, while another move toward $103 to $105 puts the energy problem straight back in front of us. And tomorrow we get the next serious test with $22 billion of 30 year US debt coming to market. That auction is going to tell us a lot about whether real buyers are genuinely prepared to keep absorbing the long end at these levels. Been a seriously interesting day watching this one develop. CCA | EireX
This is exactly why I laid out the oil and bond market setup this morning. We’ve now had another important piece added to the picture. The IMF says the Middle East energy shock could keep energy costs elevated into 2027. That matters far beyond oil. Brent is back above $101 while the US 10 year Treasury yield is sitting around 5.30%. At the same time, enormous investment into AI, data centres, chips and power infrastructure is creating another source of demand while the global economy is already dealing with expensive energy and record public debt. Look at the divergence. Stocks are sitting around record highs. Nvidia and the AI trade remain incredibly strong. But oil is above $100, Treasury yields are above 5% and central banks are still fighting inflation. If energy remains expensive into 2027, that becomes increasingly difficult to ignore. Higher energy feeds inflation. Persistent inflation keeps pressure on interest rates. Higher rates keep pressure on bonds, equity valuations and eventually liquidity across Bitcoin and crypto. That’s why I said this morning the bond market matters just as much as another green Nasdaq candle. Today we still have US oil inventories, the 10 year Treasury auction and the FOMC minutes ahead. US10Y pushing back through 5.35% while Brent moves toward $103 is the combination I’m watching now. Follow the original post below and you’ll see exactly how the picture is developing. CCA | EireX
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