Hyperliquid’s road to S3 Airdrop How much of a hypothetical 200M HYPE airdrop in November 2026 could buybacks offset by November 2029? • Perps market: Our Q2 market proxy is $57.6T annualized. Covered DEX volume grew 147% YoY in January–April 2026, while the combined market fell 21%. At 30% annual market growth, total volume reaches $131.1T, including $12.6T for Hyperliquid—assuming DEXs reach 32% market share and Hyperliquid holds 30% of DEX volume. • Trading and USDC income: Trading generates $1.90M/day, alongside $0.61M/day in modeled USDC income. Our base case compounds income at 78% annually, reaching $15.06M/day: $11.31M trading + $3.75M USDC. This requires a constant 3.28 bps net take rate and USDC balances growing from $6.8B to $41.7B at unchanged yields. • Supply and buybacks: Circulating supply is 298.9M HYPE, with 29.8M estimated emissions over three years, plus the hypothetical 200M airdrop. Projected buyback income totals $9.06B. At a $120 average purchase price, buybacks remove 75.5M HYPE, offsetting 45.7M after emissions—23% of the airdrop—and leaving 452.9M circulating. At $40 / $80 / $160, net absorption becomes 98% / 42% / 13%. • Valuation: HYPE is $80.88 at the snapshot, with circulating market cap at 27.4× annualized gross perps fees. Projected annual net income reaches $5.50B. Applying 20× gives ~$110B in token value, or ~$176 per HYPE across 626.3M adjusted outstanding tokens, including team holdings. The $120 average buyback price is an independent assumption. Is the perps market growing fast enough—and what growth are HYPE holders paying for today? September 14, 2026 snapshot. Our scenarios use Multicoin-inspired market shares, with DEX share reaching 32% by end-2028. Income growth uses a $1.83M/day trading baseline; USDC assumes 3.65% yield × 90% revenue share. Estimated emissions average ~827K HYPE/month; other reserve releases are excluded. Supply calculations include September–October changes before the airdrop.