Imagine being CME Group right now. You sued the regulator over crypto perps entering the US. Now the NYSE’s parent company is investing in a Hyperliquid-native market builder to bring perps onshore. And Elon is tweeting about it. The future came anyway

Hyperliquid made about $5M in fees today. Multicoin’s $319 assumes about $22M a day in fees and USDC income by 2028. That’s more than 4× today. Base case or stretch?

Morpho has made $0 in protocol revenue. Ever. ~$22M paid by borrowers in the last 30 days. Morpho kept none of it. It could take up to 25% of interest but chooses not to. Why? Fees could mean lower yields for users and less competitive returns for curators. The bet: grow first, monetize later. But when incentives fade, can Morpho keep its yield advantage, stay competitive for deposits, and turn that growth into value for tokenholders?

HYPE didn’t just outperform crypto. It outperformed the market. Over the last year: hyperliquid:native +55% S&P 500 +15% BTC -31% ETH -43% SOL -55% While most of crypto repriced lower, HYPE moved the other way. The question is why. https://t.co/dHT4uIWhni

Hyperliquid’s road to S3 Airdrop How much of a hypothetical 200M HYPE airdrop in November 2026 could buybacks offset by November 2029? • Perps market: Our Q2 market proxy is $57.6T annualized. Covered DEX volume grew 147% YoY in January–April 2026, while the combined market fell 21%. At 30% annual market growth, total volume reaches $131.1T, including $12.6T for Hyperliquid—assuming DEXs reach 32% market share and Hyperliquid holds 30% of DEX volume. • Trading and USDC income: Trading generates $1.90M/day, alongside $0.61M/day in modeled USDC income. Our base case compounds income at 78% annually, reaching $15.06M/day: $11.31M trading + $3.75M USDC. This requires a constant 3.28 bps net take rate and USDC balances growing from $6.8B to $41.7B at unchanged yields. • Supply and buybacks: Circulating supply is 298.9M HYPE, with 29.8M estimated emissions over three years, plus the hypothetical 200M airdrop. Projected buyback income totals $9.06B. At a $120 average purchase price, buybacks remove 75.5M HYPE, offsetting 45.7M after emissions—23% of the airdrop—and leaving 452.9M circulating. At $40 / $80 / $160, net absorption becomes 98% / 42% / 13%. • Valuation: HYPE is $80.88 at the snapshot, with circulating market cap at 27.4× annualized gross perps fees. Projected annual net income reaches $5.50B. Applying 20× gives ~$110B in token value, or ~$176 per HYPE across 626.3M adjusted outstanding tokens, including team holdings. The $120 average buyback price is an independent assumption. Is the perps market growing fast enough—and what growth are HYPE holders paying for today? September 14, 2026 snapshot. Our scenarios use Multicoin-inspired market shares, with DEX share reaching 32% by end-2028. Income growth uses a $1.83M/day trading baseline; USDC assumes 3.65% yield × 90% revenue share. Estimated emissions average ~827K HYPE/month; other reserve releases are excluded. Supply calculations include September–October changes before the airdrop.

HYPE’s path to $319 • Trading earnings: $6.6B, about 11× the current ~$588M annualized perps buyback-allocation pace. • USDC income: $1.4B, about 7× June’s ~$200M estimate, requiring roughly $43B in USDC balances at unchanged yields. • Volume and fees: @multicoin's model implies Hyperliquid derivatives volume rising from ~$2.9T in 2025 to ~$20.2T in 2028, roughly 91% annualized growth, while holding the net take rate at 3.28 bps. • Valuation: $8B × 20 = ~$160B. That implies ~$319 per HYPE at Multicoin’s adjusted 502M-token float, or ~$266 with 100M additional net tokens. • CEX vs. DEX: Multicoin models DEXs reaching 32% of a $210T derivatives market, with Hyperliquid retaining 30% of DEX volume, about $20.2T annually, or roughly 14.1% of the remaining CEX/CeFi volume. The question is simple: can earnings compound fast enough to keep pace with a growing circulating supply?

For $1K–$10K stock-perps trades, depth is rarely the constraint. Fees and top-of-book spread mattered more. @Lighter_xyz shows lower quoted costs in 65% of comparisons, helped by zero fees. @tradexyz leeds in some stocks with tighter quotes. Compare all-in cost, not fees alone. https://t.co/1U46wHiImf

Hyperliquid cleaning up the interface feels like a pretty obvious signal. Robinhood is putting Lighter underneath its users. Phantom is putting Hyperliquid underneath its users. fintechs are putting Morpho underneath yield products. VCs like @variantfund have been underwriting this exact bet for years. DeFi is slowly turning into backend infrastructure.

one of the most interesting vaults on Hyperliquid currently reports a 29.8% annualized return. the idea is simple: long $HYPE short a changing basket of altcoins both sides can make money: the HYPE position profits when HYPE rises, while the shorts profit when those alts fall. right now, the short side is doing most of the work, 97% of the profit on the vault’s open positions comes from shorting alts. that figure only covers positions still open. it does not include HYPE profits that may have already been locked in through earlier trades. the vault regularly changes its shorts. public trades suggest it adds newer or weaker coins, reduces positions that stop working and adjusts how much it shorts. it also actively buys and sells HYPE as the price moves. so this isn’t one trade held for a year. it is the same idea carried out through thousands of smaller decisions: trade HYPE, keep finding weaker alts to short and make money from both sides. the exact selection rules are private, but that is the pattern visible in the vault’s public trades.

Our USDC/HYPE delta-neutral vault averaged ~6.9% APY over the last 45d. the interesting part is what sits underneath it: → yield: verifiable on DefiLlama + against HYPE funding on @HyperliquidX → liquidity: ~$9.3b/day perp volume + ~$10.8b OI gives us deep books to open, hedge and unwind positions efficiently → transparency: wallets + positions are onchain, with Octav helping surface the portfolio → integration: we’re building the vault infra and doing the curator work on top, markets, allocations, execution + risk. ERC-7540/7575, Superform, Privy. same vault can sit inside a fintech app, a wallet earn product, or another vault allocating across strategies.