JPMorgan's 5 Fed scenarios, and what they mean for the S&P 500: • No hike → -1.25% to -1.75% • 25bps, no guidance (base case) → +0.25% to +0.75% • 25bps, removes 2025 cuts → +0.50% to +1% • 25bps, higher R-star → -0.25% to -1% • 25bps, "crush inflation" → -1% to -2% Most likely: 25bp hike + no guidance.
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