Kevin Warsh is hiking the rate tomorrow. From 3.50-3.75 to 3.75-4.00. Here's what to expect from risk-on assets (crypto, tech). This hike is to control inflation caused by oil price spikes, not by overvalued assets. Last rate hike was in March '22, after too-late Powell caused 'Bidenomics' and pumped trillions $, which inflated all speculative assets. $QQQ is the proxy for such assets (pic). The hike was priced in and for 3mo assets were falling before the hike. What followed is 10mo of contraction till Dec '22. But things are different now. Diff administration. Diff FED chair. Warsh doesn't want to be 'too late'. But at the same time he was hired to cut the rates. $QQQ hasn't collapsed and been ranging for 125d. $BTC been ranging for 220d. The hike also happening at the beginning of the main business cycle, Q4, and unlike in '22, inflated asset prices are backed by real revenues from the AI capex. So there’s less reason for risk assets to unwind for another 10mo. My read is: if '22 hike was more to cool down the economy, the upcoming hike is to cool down bond rates spiking due to elevated oil, which increases cuz of Trump's ventures in the Middle East. Higher oil means higher transportation and production costs. Those costs hit almost every product and service, spiking the overall inflation read. If situation doesn't improve, we will see short-term treasuries $US02Y spiking and crossing long-term treasuries $US10Y, giving you that infamous inverted yield curve. 2027 will be filled with talks about recession with assets only growing to adjust for inflation. But there is a silver lining - Republicans are loosing the House in the upcoming midterms. That will curb Trump’s enthusiasm. As a conclusion, tech trades flat till the end of Trump’s admin. The chart still goes up and to the right since it’s denominated in ever-depreciating greenbacks. With the “most pro-crypto president” finishing his term, and Trump extracting $3b from crypto enthusiasts, there’s not much hope for $BTC spiking to the promised $600k. And no, “Clarity” won't save it. Once Democrats are back in office and SEC, CFTC chairs are slowly replaced, regulatory risk for crypto comes back into focus. Happy bidding.