What Does the Fed Do to Strengthen the Bull? Now pay close attention here. Because in the market, the Fed is often explained far too simplistically. If the Fed cuts rates, Bitcoin goes up. End of story. No. It’s not that simple. Even if the Fed cuts rates today, the market could still fall. Even if the Fed holds rates steady, Bitcoin could still rise. Even when the Fed cuts rates, markets could still sell off. WHY? Because the market doesn’t price in today’s events… It prices in EXPECTATIONS. Let’s say everyone in the market believes the Fed will cut rates. The Fed comes and actually cuts rates. But then Kevin Warsh steps out and says: “Guys, this is just one rate cut—don’t expect further cuts at upcoming meetings.” What happens? The market stops pricing in the rate cut itself… And starts pricing in the follow-up message. That’s why I don’t just look at the rate decision alone. Sometimes, what matters more than the decision itself is the message behind it. Because the signal sent to the market… Determines future liquidity conditions. Now, from my bull case perspective, I’m watching three things especially closely: ONE: Inflation falling sustainably lower. TWO: The Fed shifting toward a more dovish stance on monetary policy. THREE: Financial conditions beginning to ease. When all three strengthen simultaneously… The environment for risk assets becomes dramatically different. But now let’s flip to the other side. Because what truly matters isn’t just knowing what supports the bull case… What breaks the bull case? If inflation accelerates again… If bond yields rise… If the dollar strengthens… If the Fed adopts a more hawkish policy… If financial conditions tighten… If risk appetite sharply deteriorates… I won’t stubbornly insist, “But I still think the bull is coming.” Because for me, it’s not about being right in my prediction. It’s about READING THE DATA CORRECTLY. The market doesn’t have to move the way I think it should. I have to adapt to what the market is doing. Now, let’s not forget one critically important point: A Fed rate cut by itself does NOT mean liquidity is increasing. I’m saying this specifically— Because we’re going to hear this phrase a lot in the coming period: “THE FED CUT RATES. THE BULL BEGINS.” No. First, we’ll ask: Why was the rate cut made? Did the economy strengthen? Did inflation decline? Or did the economy severely weaken? Because the same rate cut can have two completely different meanings: If the economy is cooling in a controlled way and the Fed is easing—different scenario. If the economy is breaking down and the Fed is fighting a fire—entirely different scenario. That’s exactly what macro analysis means: Not making decisions based on a single data point. It’s reading the WHOLE STORY TOGETHER. Now we’re slowly getting to the real issue. Because we’ve talked about the Fed. We’ve talked about liquidity. We’ve talked about money flows. But we haven’t yet discussed how all of this translates into market behavior. In the next section, we’ll return to Bitcoin. But this time, we won’t just look at charts. We’ll ask: Why is Bitcoin moving precisely at THIS LEVEL? And even more importantly… WHO IS BUYING AT THESE LEVELS? WHO IS SELLING? That’s where things get far more interesting. ⏳