We’re right in the middle of the big game, everyone… Don’t try to explain every movement you see in the market solely through spot buying. There’s a significant difference between what’s visible on the surface and what’s happening behind the scenes. Spot buying and selling continue, but a much larger battle is unfolding in the derivatives market: open positions being closed, leveraged trades, liquidations, and liquidity hunts… The market is no longer just about whether Bitcoin is rising or falling. The real question is where large positions have accumulated and how the market will use them. Let me make this clear: Big players don’t make money where prices rise or fall—they make money by manipulating perception. Sometimes they hold prices in a specific range. Sometimes they create the illusion of an upward breakout. Other times, they convince everyone that a downturn is inevitable. Why? Because when everyone in the market starts thinking the same thing, that collective belief becomes a liquidity pool. On one side, leveraged traders expecting a rally; on the other, those betting on a drop. Both sides’ stop-losses and liquidation levels become fuel for the market. That’s why making decisions based solely on charts can be a huge mistake. A few hundred-dollar move in Bitcoin can liquidate thousands of positions. Some think a breakout above resistance means the rally has begun; others close all their positions because support was broken. But the real story of the market is often written behind the candles. The key thing I’m closely watching: Is real new money actually entering the spot market, or is price being driven purely by accumulated positions in the derivatives market? Because these are not the same thing. Spot buying reflects genuine demand, while excessive leverage in derivatives can amplify price moves far beyond their true fundamentals. Sometimes a rally is backed by strong demand; other times, it’s just a cascade of short liquidations. Likewise, a drop doesn’t always mean real selling pressure. If you want to make money in this market, you must learn to read not just the price—but the game behind it. Don’t follow the crowd. Don’t label every rally as bullish or every drop as bearish. Don’t rush into leveraged trades. Often, before major moves, the market convinces people they’re on the right side—when they’re not. Remember: The most expensive thing in this market isn’t ignorance—it’s being confidently wrong in your position. We’re in the middle of the big game. And in this game, winners aren’t those who predict where price will go—they’re those who can see where risk is accumulating. Rest assured, I’ll do my very best to help you see it clearly.

I’ve been away for a while, and I wanted to take a moment to explain to everyone who reached out, wondered where I was, or asked about me. I lost someone very dear to me. I’m living through that pain. Sometimes, there are things a person cannot put into words, cannot share with anyone, and must simply carry within themselves—and right now, that’s exactly where I am. In the rush of life, we often get swept up in everything: work, future plans, money, the market, gains, losses—we chase after all of it. But then one day, life reminds you in such a way that you realize nothing matters as much as it once did. Some losses cannot be made up for. Some people’s places can never be filled. And some pains, even with time, continue to live inside us. For the past few days, I’ve been trying to carve out some time for myself, to accept what’s happened, and to begin to heal. That’s why I haven’t been here, why I haven’t posted or been as active as before. Thank you from the bottom of my heart to everyone who wondered about me, messaged me, or asked if I was okay. It might still be too soon to say I’m fine—but I’m trying to put myself back together. I need a little more time. I want to remind all of you once again: cherish those you love. Don’t delay making that call, sending that message, or asking how someone is doing. Sometimes, what we put off until tomorrow may never have a tomorrow. I needed some time alone with myself. Thank you to everyone who showed understanding, cared, and stayed by my side with your kind messages. Take care of yourselves and those you love. Nothing in life is more precious than the presence of the people you care about.

What I’m about to say might not be pleasant to hear, but when the big rally comes, a significant portion of the people currently in the market will only watch it unfold. Because before a massive move, the market must do something else: exhaust people, drain their patience, and make them say, “Enough already.” Some will sell at a loss and exit; others, after waiting months, will sell once they break even, thinking, “I’m just too tired of this,” and step away; still others will shut the door forever after enduring a few harsh downturns. And here’s the strangest part: the move will begin precisely after most people have left. Those who today say, “I sold and escaped,” won’t see those same prices again tomorrow—instead, they’ll be forced to buy back at much higher levels. Because the market doesn’t hand out profits easily. First, it tests your patience; then, it tests your conviction; finally, it asks: “Can you really stay here?” This is why, where big money is involved, the psychology of small investors is manipulated. What people want most is to buy low—but when prices are low, no one wants to buy. Everyone gains confidence only after seeing the rally begin—and that’s exactly when they start buying. What I’m trying to explain is actually very simple. It’s not just about whether a big rally will come. The real question is: when it does, will you still be in the game? Sometimes, people leave the market not because they’ve lost money—but because they’re afraid of losing it. Then the market reverses right from where they exited. Perhaps the most painful part of this cycle will be this: some of those who gave up and sold today will tomorrow say, “I wish I’d just waited a little longer.” But the market doesn’t listen to anyone’s “what ifs.” Prices move—and those left behind can only watch from the screen. So don’t just look at today’s events through the lens of price. This process is also a battle of patience. Who will hold on? Who will tire? Who will quit? Time will reveal that. But when the big move begins, we’ll understand far more clearly why so many were pushed out of the market today. ⏳

We are now at a critical juncture for the altcoin rally. For a genuine altcoin rally to begin, we first need a double top formation in Bitcoin dominance. Looking at the chart, BTC dominance is currently around 59–60%, with significant resistance looming near 63–64%. So the situation is this simple: Bitcoin dominance will move upward and retest the 63–64% zone. If it gets rejected again there and then turns downward, breaking below its support level, that’s when the foundation for the movement we’ve been expecting in altcoins may begin to form. But there’s a crucial detail here: We do not want Bitcoin to decline. On the contrary, Bitcoin must remain as strong as possible and continue its upward momentum. If Bitcoin drops sharply, capital will not flow into altcoins—instead, altcoins will be crushed alongside Bitcoin. The scenario we’re looking for is this: Bitcoin continues to rise, gaining market confidence. BTC dominance forms a peak and turns downward, prompting capital to shift from Bitcoin into altcoins. We’ve seen similar patterns form in past market cycles. Currently, BTC dominance remains in a decisive range. Whether the 63–64% zone is broken or rejected—and whether dominance subsequently breaks downward—is what matters most to us. Therefore, it’s still too early to say “the altcoin rally has begun.” But to be honest… I don’t think we have much time left. If Bitcoin continues its upward trend and BTC dominance makes one final push toward the upper resistance level, the path ahead will become much clearer. In short: Bitcoin stays strong. BTC dominance forms a top. Dominance turns downward. Capital flows into altcoins. This is exactly the story we’ve been waiting for.

#Fhe 👀 A major move is about to happen… ⏳

May the Saga path be open; show us 100x gains 🙏

Is Bitcoin moving on its own? Now let’s take a broader perspective. Because trying to understand the entire market just by looking at Bitcoin’s chart, in my view, is a major mistake. Bitcoin is important, but it doesn’t move in isolation. When I look at Bitcoin, I also simultaneously examine gold, silver, the dollar, bonds, Nasdaq, and the S&P 500. Why? Because each of these markets tells us something different about how investors view the world. For example, gold is rising. I don’t just say “gold is rising” and move on. Is there a search for safety? Is inflation fear building? Are expectations toward central banks changing? What’s happening with dollar pricing? I look at all of these. Silver is rising. Now a different part of the story emerges—because silver isn’t just a monetary asset; it’s also tied to industrial demand. Then I turn to Nasdaq. What’s the risk appetite like? Are investors still putting money into growth stocks? Do they have faith in the future? I look at the S&P 500. What is the broader market saying? I look at bonds. How are interest rate expectations shifting? I look at the dollar. Are funds fleeing to safety, or are they beginning to take on risk? Then I return to Bitcoin. This, precisely, is what I mean by the “big picture.” It’s not just one chart. It’s the STORY ALL THE CHARTS TELL EACH OTHER. Because if Bitcoin rises while Nasdaq rises, that’s a different story. If Bitcoin rises while gold strengthens, that’s another story. If Bitcoin rises while the dollar weakens, that’s yet another story. I don’t just watch whether Bitcoin is rising. I ask: “WHY is it rising?” And even more importantly, I check whether other markets are confirming this movement. Because one of the market’s most beautiful aspects is this: you can validate a move you see in one place by observing it elsewhere. Sometimes Bitcoin tells you one thing, gold tells you another, and the bond market tells you something entirely different. That’s when I pay close attention. Because one of the most dangerous periods in markets is when everyone believes the same story. When everyone expects a rally, everyone opens leveraged long positions, and everyone says “it won’t drop anymore”—that’s when I become extra cautious. But when no one believes it, no one is talking, and prices are quietly gaining strength… That’s when I become far more interested. Because one of the best things about major moves is that they rarely make headlines at the start. By the time they’re on the front page, the move has usually already begun. So far, we’ve expanded the big picture a bit more. We’ve talked about the Fed. We’ve talked about liquidity. Interest rates, the dollar, bonds, gold, silver, and equity markets. But we’re still missing one piece. Behind all these markets moving is one thing: people. Investors. Fear. Greed. FOMO. Panic. Hope. And most importantly… WHEN IS THE CROWD GOING TO CHANGE POSITION? In the next section, we’ll dive right into this. Because sometimes what moves markets isn’t just money— IT’S THE EMOTION BEHIND THE MONEY. And in my view, one of the most dangerous yet most profitable parts of the bull story begins right here.

Why Bitcoin Exactly at This Level? So far, what have we discussed? Liquidity. Interest rates. The Fed. Money flow. Risk appetite. All of these are important. But ultimately, all of this story comes down to one place: PRICE. And now we’ll look at Bitcoin. But we won’t just ask: “Is the chart going up or down?” First, we’ll ask: Why is Bitcoin exactly at this level? Because there are certain levels in the market. When price reaches these levels, everyone sees the same thing: Resistance. Support. Breakout. Rejection. But I look at it a little differently. I don’t just see a price level as a line… I see it as a POSITIONING zone. Because when so many people have taken positions in a certain area, it’s no longer just a technical level. It becomes a psychological level too. Everyone’s eyes are on it. Buyers are there. Sellers are there. Leverage is there. Stop-losses are there. And the market often tightens precisely around these zones because of this. Now, we’ll do the same with Bitcoin. Before asking: “Will it rise from here?” We’ll ask: “WHO HAS POSITIONS HERE?” Because Bitcoin’s price isn’t determined solely by spot buyers. There are futures. There are options. There’s leverage. There are institutional positions. There are ETF flows. There are long-term investors. There are short-term traders. There are miners. There’s Bitcoin flowing on and off exchanges. And all of these are exerting pressure on price simultaneously. Now we’ve reached the critical point. A breakout of a resistance zone alone doesn’t mean bullishness. What matters is HOW the breakout happens. Is volume coming in? Is spot demand appearing? How are open interest levels changing? What’s happening with leverage? Can price hold above the breakout zone afterward? Or does the much-anticipated breakout occur, only for price to reverse back down within hours? These are the things I’m watching. Because charts only show us the outcome. We’re trying to understand the behavior behind that outcome. And we won’t make this mistake: Just because Bitcoin rose, we won’t immediately say “BULLISH.” Just because Bitcoin fell, we won’t say “BULL MARKET OVER.” Because within major trends, sharp corrections happen frequently. Sometimes the market scares people. Sometimes it FOMOs everyone. And most people end up taking wrong positions right in the middle of these psychological moves. Our job is to minimize emotion and understand the mechanics. So far, we’ve built the big picture: The Fed. Liquidity. Money flow. Macro. Now we’re diving into Bitcoin itself. But Bitcoin doesn’t move in isolation. And I believe the next part of this series will be even more interesting. Because alongside Bitcoin, something else is moving too: GOLD. SILVER. NASDAQ. S&P 500. THE DOLLAR. BONDS. When we put all of these on the same table, a much different story emerges. In the next section, we’ll do exactly that. Because the real question now is: Is Bitcoin building a bull case ALONE? Or is THE ENTIRE MARKET IN THE SAME STORY? This is what we’ll explore.

The bull has arrived. I can’t say that… Because it hasn’t arrived! Why? Does anyone know? Everyone is going through a difficult process. Many have already been eliminated. A significant number will be filtered out during the first rally too. What will be left? Let me tell you… People who have exhausted their psychological capacity for investing. The bull market is reserved for 2027–2028. There will be a temporary rally between September and November. They’ll create sharp up-and-down movements to eliminate a large portion of participants. The big players will pick up undervalued projects and trigger FOMO—only then will the real rally begin. I could go on and on, but it would never end. By the way, they’re sharing the FOMO mechanism with you—but they’re doing it because they’ve run out of money and are trying to build a crowd. Don’t fall for it. Don’t get involved. The meme coin market will take everything you have—your assets, your path, everything. If you don’t have real insiders inside, it’s extremely difficult. Do you have any questions?

What Does the Fed Do to Strengthen the Bull? Now pay close attention here. Because in the market, the Fed is often explained far too simplistically. If the Fed cuts rates, Bitcoin goes up. End of story. No. It’s not that simple. Even if the Fed cuts rates today, the market could still fall. Even if the Fed holds rates steady, Bitcoin could still rise. Even when the Fed cuts rates, markets could still sell off. WHY? Because the market doesn’t price in today’s events… It prices in EXPECTATIONS. Let’s say everyone in the market believes the Fed will cut rates. The Fed comes and actually cuts rates. But then Kevin Warsh steps out and says: “Guys, this is just one rate cut—don’t expect further cuts at upcoming meetings.” What happens? The market stops pricing in the rate cut itself… And starts pricing in the follow-up message. That’s why I don’t just look at the rate decision alone. Sometimes, what matters more than the decision itself is the message behind it. Because the signal sent to the market… Determines future liquidity conditions. Now, from my bull case perspective, I’m watching three things especially closely: ONE: Inflation falling sustainably lower. TWO: The Fed shifting toward a more dovish stance on monetary policy. THREE: Financial conditions beginning to ease. When all three strengthen simultaneously… The environment for risk assets becomes dramatically different. But now let’s flip to the other side. Because what truly matters isn’t just knowing what supports the bull case… What breaks the bull case? If inflation accelerates again… If bond yields rise… If the dollar strengthens… If the Fed adopts a more hawkish policy… If financial conditions tighten… If risk appetite sharply deteriorates… I won’t stubbornly insist, “But I still think the bull is coming.” Because for me, it’s not about being right in my prediction. It’s about READING THE DATA CORRECTLY. The market doesn’t have to move the way I think it should. I have to adapt to what the market is doing. Now, let’s not forget one critically important point: A Fed rate cut by itself does NOT mean liquidity is increasing. I’m saying this specifically— Because we’re going to hear this phrase a lot in the coming period: “THE FED CUT RATES. THE BULL BEGINS.” No. First, we’ll ask: Why was the rate cut made? Did the economy strengthen? Did inflation decline? Or did the economy severely weaken? Because the same rate cut can have two completely different meanings: If the economy is cooling in a controlled way and the Fed is easing—different scenario. If the economy is breaking down and the Fed is fighting a fire—entirely different scenario. That’s exactly what macro analysis means: Not making decisions based on a single data point. It’s reading the WHOLE STORY TOGETHER. Now we’re slowly getting to the real issue. Because we’ve talked about the Fed. We’ve talked about liquidity. We’ve talked about money flows. But we haven’t yet discussed how all of this translates into market behavior. In the next section, we’ll return to Bitcoin. But this time, we won’t just look at charts. We’ll ask: Why is Bitcoin moving precisely at THIS LEVEL? And even more importantly… WHO IS BUYING AT THESE LEVELS? WHO IS SELLING? That’s where things get far more interesting. ⏳