
Are the $STRC buybacks GOOD or BAD for $MSTR holders? The answer is both - as shown by the Strategy Simulator. 👇📺 Observe the two simulations below. They each model scenarios of how MSTR price moves between now and March 2028, if BTC moved from $64,262 (Strategy's average purchase price last week) at the start, to $126,000 at the end - all other things equal. Scenario 1 excludes last week's buybacks. Scenario 2 includes them. SCENARIO 1: No buybacks. Senior claims = 22.115 billion BTC reserve = 842,137 MSTR moves from $98.48 to $230.52 SCENARIO 2: Buybacks. Senior claims = 22.0 billion BTC reserve = 840,447 MSTR moves from $98.50 to $230.25. Technically, the starting price RISES with the buybacks, but the ending price FALLS. In the short term, STRC buybacks are mathematically accretive right now. In the long term, they hurt the stock's amplification and neuter MSTR returns as BTC grows. But the bigger takeaway here... ... is that one individual buyback of this size has barely ANY impact on MSTR either way. So anybody aggressively hyping or FUDing these actions is just engagement farming you. My take is that Strategy is simply showing their hand to the ratings agencies in a small way right now, proving they *can* engage in this type of flexible capital markets activity when needed. Less noise, more math 🧠
