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Andrew Throuvalas

Following0Followers (X)8.08KPosts80Likes1.72K
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The recent dilution of $MSTR is about to slow down substantially. Management has now achieved its target of 2 to 3 years of dividend coverage for its USD reserves. I predict one more dedicated week to building its cash reserves. Future dilution will likely be minimal, limited to financing monthly interest and dividend expenses. All that remains is bringing $STRC back to par, which is already making phenomenal progress ($95+) and has required minimal, almost negligible, buybacks to this point. The chart below captures the scope of all the BTC per share dilution until now. Through all the fire and fury on this app, BTC per share is in the same spot as Dec 1 - when the USD reserve was first established. In return, Strategy has vastly improved the credit quality of STRC, which will be the long-term engine funding unprecedented BTC purchases in the future. Bullish.

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Epic rant from Michael Saylor where he compares buying bitcoin to being injected with Compound V from The Boys. "Take Compound ₿." 🟠🧪 https://t.co/XQUuQPO2v1

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MSTR could still fall a LOT in the fourth quarter. If BTC bottoms soon at 50k (like many expect) and mNAV contracts to an even 1.00X, MSTR's price would go down to $61.97, all other things equal. A 34.8% drop from here 😬📉 https://t.co/hrvu3wrnKc

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STRC is looking strong at $95, but $SATA is already back above $99. Both are almost entirely recovered. Which company will restart its digital credit engine first? https://t.co/u3IDtv2rPZ

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If Bitcoin actually drops to $50k in October- and you manage to buy the bottom with MSTR - the future payoff would be absolutely insane. Should BTC reclaim its all-time high at $126k in March 2028, your MSTR would be up 247% to $227. Without ANY mNAV change from these lows. https://t.co/y1FCQdHc6r

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I was a crypto journalist for three years. Everything Cory says here is on point. Narrative follows price every time. The price moves, and we have to figure out the reason it happened in hindsight to create a juicy headline. Nobody knows wtf is really going on short term.

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Are the $STRC buybacks GOOD or BAD for $MSTR holders? The answer is both - as shown by the Strategy Simulator. 👇📺 Observe the two simulations below. They each model scenarios of how MSTR price moves between now and March 2028, if BTC moved from $64,262 (Strategy's average purchase price last week) at the start, to $126,000 at the end - all other things equal. Scenario 1 excludes last week's buybacks. Scenario 2 includes them. SCENARIO 1: No buybacks. Senior claims = 22.115 billion BTC reserve = 842,137 MSTR moves from $98.48 to $230.52 SCENARIO 2: Buybacks. Senior claims = 22.0 billion BTC reserve = 840,447 MSTR moves from $98.50 to $230.25. Technically, the starting price RISES with the buybacks, but the ending price FALLS. In the short term, STRC buybacks are mathematically accretive right now. In the long term, they hurt the stock's amplification and neuter MSTR returns as BTC grows. But the bigger takeaway here... ... is that one individual buyback of this size has barely ANY impact on MSTR either way. So anybody aggressively hyping or FUDing these actions is just engagement farming you. My take is that Strategy is simply showing their hand to the ratings agencies in a small way right now, proving they *can* engage in this type of flexible capital markets activity when needed. Less noise, more math 🧠

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Alright, I admit I was wrong about $STRC buybacks. Turns out this was a very effective method for restoring the STRC price - and it actually hasn't required that much STRC to be repurchased. Great execution @Strategy team. Less than $5 to go! https://t.co/ETjC3mipe9