FED DAY IS HERE! BITCOIN IS AT A CRITICAL DECISION ZONE! The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its July 2026 interest rate decision on Wednesday, July 29 at 9:00 PM Turkey time. Following the announcement, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference at 9:30 PM. The market generally expects the Fed to hold its policy rate steady at current levels. However, the real issue is not whether rates will be held constant. The key question lies in the messaging the Fed provides for the path ahead! Notably, 38% of survey participants expect a quarter-point rate hike signal—a figure that stands out. In an environment already marked by elevated geopolitical risks, any indication from the Fed suggesting a potential rate hike or further delaying rate cuts could increase selling pressure on risk assets, especially cryptocurrencies. We’ve also observed limited spillover effects from Fed tensions onto Bitcoin ETFs. Although there have been outflows over the past two days, it’s still too early to classify this as a major panic wave. Over the past week, approximately $415 million has flowed out of BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest Bitcoin ETF. By contrast, the on-chain picture tells a very different story. According to CryptoQuant data, whales have accumulated roughly 66,700 Bitcoin over the past two months. While ETFs show short-term unease, the continued accumulation by major players remains noteworthy. BITCOIN’S CRITICAL LEVELS Bitcoin has come to a complete standstill near the $64,000 level ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision. On the chart, the $64,157–$64,502 range emerges as the decisive zone in the short term. If Bitcoin settles above this band and closes above $64,502 on four-hour charts, upward momentum could regain strength. The first major resistance above is at $65,568. A sustained breakout above this level would shift our focus to the next resistance at $67,290. On the downside, $63,190 serves as the first key support level. If this level is breached, the $62,223–$61,879 range becomes our critical support zone. Should selling pressure intensify further, we’ll next watch levels at $60,714, $59,092, and $58,099 in sequence. In short, Bitcoin has been parked in a precise zone: Above $64,500 opens the door to upside momentum; below $63,190 reactivates the key support levels below. And it is precisely in this decision zone that the Fed is arriving. Therefore, tonight we won’t just watch the announced interest rate. We’ll closely monitor every word Warsh utters regarding rate cuts, potential hikes, inflation, and geopolitical risks. Because it’s not the rate decision itself—but the Fed’s roadmap for what comes next—that will truly move the market. Tonight, we’ll see Hanya in Konya.
