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BTC is undergoing a consolidation phase. Realized Capitalization (RC) has seen a net decrease of $14.8 billion over the past 30 days, down from a peak of $28.8 billion on February 18. As Bitcoin’s price falls back to the same level, the magnitude of RC’s net reduction has diminished—what key insights does this reveal? RC essentially measures the net inflow and outflow of funds based on cost basis. When coins move at prices below their acquisition cost, realized capitalization is adjusted downward; the red bars represent the net scale of realized losses. This phenomenon primarily reflects three factors: 1⃣ Overall cost basis has shifted lower; the deep capitulation in February forced a large volume of high-cost holders to sell at low prices. By the time the price returns to the same range, much of the supply capable of realizing losses has already been absorbed—hence, the net reduction becomes smaller. This is direct evidence of structural exhaustion in selling pressure. The most intuitive interpretation is the divergence between data patterns and price action. 2⃣ Marginal sellers are dwindling; fewer holders are willing to sell at this level. Those remaining either have lower cost bases and stronger conviction, or are locked-in positions with low liquidity and no immediate incentive to move. 3⃣ The smaller net reduction could also reflect reduced overall on-chain activity; fewer transactions mean less change in RC. To rule out this alternative explanation, we must compare with EA-TRV (Entity-Adjusted Total Transfer Volume). Data shows that in June, daily average BTC transfers were 101,000; in February, they were 136,000. While there has been a decline, it is not nearly as drastic. Thus, the primary drivers behind the significantly reduced net RC decrease at the same price level are factors 1 and 2: forced rotation during deep capitulation lowering the overall cost basis, and the exhaustion of marginal sellers. Of course, this serves more as supporting evidence of an ongoing consolidation phase rather than definitive confirmation that the bottom has been reached.

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