U.S. stock markets are closed on Monday. While there appear to be signs of progress in the U.S.-Iran agreement, excessive optimism is unwarranted. First, the fact that oil prices have dropped nearly 7% suggests significant progress in the negotiations. Second, however, this does not mean an agreement will be reached immediately. According to Nikkei, the ceasefire has been extended by 60 days. This doesn’t necessarily mean the agreement requires 60 days to finalize, but the probability of reaching a deal within just six days is very low. Feng has already placed a bet on Polymarket that no agreement will be reached by May 31. Current PM predictions show a 50% probability of an agreement by June 15. Third, another reason to avoid excessive optimism is oil. @rngzhwn199456 previously warned Feng that even if the Strait opens immediately, oil prices won’t plummet right away. After reviewing this insight, Feng agrees it’s accurate. Gulf nations have already entered partial production shutdowns due to the inability to import crude oil, and underground pressure conditions in oil reservoirs have changed. Meanwhile, during the U.S.-Iran hostilities, energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait was directly or indirectly targeted by Iranian attacks. As a result, restoring some crude production capacity will take time—minimum two months, potentially over a year. While @rngzhwn199456 anticipates a surge in crude oil purchases once capacity recovers, Feng is less convinced. But one thing is certain: after the Strait opens, oil prices are unlikely to drop rapidly back to pre-war levels, nor will they decline in a straight line. Before the Strait opens, some previously extracted crude inventories from Gulf nations will enter the market, increasing supply. However, as production capacity fails to fully recover afterward, supply will remain relatively constrained—likely resulting in a volatile, gradual decline. Oil price fluctuations will influence expectations around interest rate hikes, which in turn affect U.S. stocks and crypto markets. Yet this dynamic may also present opportunities for trading crude oil futures contracts.