May 20 will be a critically important day for the U.S. stock market. NVIDIA will release its earnings report after the U.S. market close. The current S&P 500 is nearly supported by large-cap tech stocks tied to AI and semiconductors, which account for over 40% of its weight—and at the center of this sector stands NVIDIA. In essence, NVIDIA = the AI trade itself. The S&P 500’s rise to a record high of 7,500 reflects the market’s pricing in of the following scenario: - The AI boom is real. - Corporations will continue making massive investments in AI infrastructure. - AI-related capital expenditures will keep expanding. - NVIDIA will maintain its dominance in the market. The current market is pricing in a highly “perfect future.” Market expectations are: Revenue: ~$78 billion EPS: ~$1.77 But the key point is that the market won’t be satisfied merely with achieving $78 billion in revenue. It demands even stronger revenue growth, more bullish guidance, a clear rebound in sales to China, and continued acceleration of AI investment. In other words, NVIDIA must not only beat earnings—it must deliver results that prove “the AI bubble is still heating up.” Recent gains in NVIDIA’s stock have been fueled by approval for sales of its H200 chips to major Chinese tech firms. However, the issue is that even after Trump’s visit to China, Chinese officials have explicitly stated they have not yet purchased any H200 chips. As of now, H200 sales to China have not yet been reflected in actual revenue figures. To meet market expectations, NVIDIA needs two things: - A significant earnings beat - Clear confirmation of a recovery in China sales Right now, there are numerous sources of market anxiety: - A new Fed Chair - Oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and supply chain disruptions - Overheated AI valuations If NVIDIA delivers a strong earnings report exceeding $80 billion, the AI-driven rally could accelerate further. Conversely, if earnings meet expectations but China sales remain uncertain, the market may enter a period of consolidation while waiting for the next data point. If NVIDIA misses expectations entirely, a broad repricing across AI-related stocks could occur—compounding existing market unease and triggering significant volatility.