20260212 Last night's non-farm payroll data report was still quite solid. Initially, $BTC briefly rallied, then sharply reversed and crushed long positions. It was truly brutal, but fortunately, after a night passed, it slowly recovered. I just checked Polymarket, and naturally, the probability of rate cuts in June has also decreased somewhat: Probability of a 25bp cut ≈ 49%, No cut ≈ 39%, Aggressive 50bp cut down to only 10%. What does this indicate? It’s not that the economy is too weak. It’s just not weak enough. Employment hasn’t collapsed, wages haven’t crashed, and inflation risks haven’t fully disappeared— the Fed has no reason to rush into emergency easing. Of course, Walsh’s nomination suggests that rate cuts will definitely come later, it’s just a matter of how he coordinates with the Boss to execute their combo strategy.