20260601 Happy Children's Day~~~ This week’s ETF data is even worse— institutional funds continue to exit, and the scale is even larger than last week. According to the numbers: $BTC: -$1.415 billion ethereum:native: -$241 million $SOL: +$2.4 million $SOL is the only survivor. Last week, $BTC outflows were already severe; this week, they were even worse. Combined, the two weeks saw a total outflow of approximately $2.671 billion. This is the strongest consecutive outflow I’ve observed in months of tracking ETF data. ethereum:native followed suit, but $SOL’s ETF performance has remained relatively strong overall. This gives me the impression that May’s market movement wasn’t a broad retreat— but rather a reallocation of capital. When you aggregate May’s full data, a very interesting reality emerges: $BTC and ethereum:native were sold off, while $SOL was bought. It feels like capital isn’t fully exiting the crypto market— but rather fleeing from $BTC and ethereum:native. Fun fact: $BNB now also has an ETF, and recently, hyperliquid:native launched one too. So there’s a possibility that investors believe $BTC and ethereum:native have limited upside potential going forward, and are now positioning early into the next wave of high-elasticity assets. If this assessment holds true, then current $SOL could resemble ethereum:native in early 2021. May ended with a massive market divergence: on one side, $BTC ETFs recorded their strongest consecutive outflows in recent memory; on the other, $SOL ETFs posted their most impressive consecutive inflows in months. Only time will tell the answer. #BTC #ETH #SOL $BTC ethereum:native $SOL
20260318 Everyone knows the SEC released a major document today. After analyzing it, here are the key takeaways: $BTC benefits the most, now classified under the “digital commodity” framework. $ETH also clearly benefits, especially regarding staking-related language. Mainstream blockchain assets like $SOL benefit as well. The projects under the greatest pressure are those masquerading as blockchains but are essentially fundraising schemes. Those with actual network functionality are moving toward being treated as commodities or infrastructure. Those relying solely on fundraising narratives and yield promises will continue to be viewed under securities regulations. The SEC has now clearly recognized compliant stablecoins as payment instruments, and the native yield logic of PoS blockchains. U.S.-based institutions now have renewed confidence to re-allocate into crypto under compliance guidelines. Before the SEC changed chairs, the market’s biggest concern was that everything could be labeled a security. Now, the market is clearly entering a new phase: Who are the true network commodities, and who is just using blockchain as a fundraising facade? Mainstream assets will increasingly resemble “compliant digital commodities,” while speculative projects will find it harder to hide among them and benefit from inflated valuations. This is undoubtedly positive for long-term holders. Let’s patiently await the passage of the upcoming legislation. $BTC $ETH $SOL
20260228 Geopolitical tensions between the US 🇺🇸 and Iran 🇮🇷 have triggered significant market volatility. Data from the past 24 hours has been extremely unfavorable for long positions: $BTC and $ETH have likely liquidated over $160 million in long positions, while short positions suffered losses of only around $30 million— roughly a 1:5 ratio, with devastating losses for longs. On the chart, prices dropped as low as approximately $64,900. Yesterday’s prediction suggested that a break below $65K could trigger a waterfall decline; so far, this level has held. At this moment, shorts have shown relative restraint. From a geopolitical perspective, although the US and Iran have agreed to resume negotiations next week, the US continues to assemble a massive force of aircraft and warships in the Middle East, and the risk of conflict is drawing nearer. The President currently states: “I don’t want to act, but I can’t rule it out if absolutely necessary.” Let’s hope this unfolds as a new TACO script. We’ll wait until the afternoon to review the latest ETF inflow/outflow data before providing a final summary. Specific directional moves may need to wait until next week. We still hope for a peaceful resolution. #BTC $BTC #ETH $ETH
20260226 After reviewing the liquidation map for $BTC on Hyperliquid, the battle among large holders appears to be centered between $51k and $77k, with accumulated liquidation levels clustered around 2,000 BTC each. Currently, $BTC is trading around $68k. Theoretically, the distance to reach $77k is shorter, so over the next few days, observe whether resistance near $72k will be broken. If broken, a more intense short squeeze could follow. Some consolidation is inevitable. #BTC $BTC
20260226 It’s been a while since we’ve seen this kind of ETF inflow, so I thought it was worth updating the data midweek for everyone. On the 25th, BlackRock alone saw $297 million flow into $BTC— nearly 5,000 BTC worth—pushing total inflows to an impressive $507 million. Daily inflows for $ETH and $SOL were also strong. We can’t yet say the trend has reversed, but this is certainly the strongest inflow data we’ve seen in recent times. Let’s wait until the end of this week to see whether we return to where we started or deliver a solid performance by maintaining a week of positive inflows. #BTC #ETH #SOL $BTC $ETH $SOL