Leopold’s Situational Awareness LP fund, once hailed as a star of U.S. IPOs, has completely transformed its Q1 2026 holdings (see Figure 1)! 🧐 I double- and triple-checked multiple times, thinking I’d misread—yet the holdings in Figure 1 truly left me stunned. Terrified, I immediately liquidated nearly half of my AI-focused U.S. equity positions tonight! This timing is highly suspicious. First, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged dramatically to 4.62%. Coupled with NVIDIA’s major earnings report due after Wednesday’s close, the sudden surge in put options suggests something major is brewing. Remember: Last Q4, Leopold was heavily invested in AI infrastructure. Now, he’s gone full bearish. What exactly has he seen? 🥸 🎯 First, examine the top holdings shift—its impact is earthquake-level: 📊 Q1 2026 Holdings (as of March 31): • SMH PUT (Semiconductor ETF short) – 14.94%, $2.04B market value • NVDA PUT (NVIDIA short) – 11.47%, $1.57B market value • ORCL PUT (Oracle short) – 7.84%, $1.07B market value • AVGO PUT (Broadcom short) – 7.36%, $1B market value • AMD PUT (AMD short) – 7.09%, $970M market value You read that right—the top five holdings are all PUT options. Honestly, I verified this data at least five times! What does this mean? Leopold is betting real capital against the entire tech and semiconductor sector. (It could also be a complex options hedging strategy to protect gains—but overall, puts significantly outnumber calls.) 🎯 Core Strategy Shift: Q4 2025 Holdings Logic: • Heavy allocation to AI infrastructure: Bloom Energy (power), CoreWeave (compute), Lumentum (optical communications) • Core thesis: AI’s bottleneck isn’t chips—it’s power and compute infrastructure • Strategy: Sold NVIDIA, TSMC, and other chip stocks; shifted to upstream energy and data centers Q1 2026 Holdings Logic: • Full-scale shorting of tech giants and semiconductors! • Short list: #SMH, #NVDA, #ORCL, #AVGO, #AMD, #MU, #TSM, #ASML, #INTC • Simultaneously retains some call options for hedging: #MU, #SNDK, #TSM calls This is a complete 180-degree reversal! 🧐 My interpretation and thoughts: Leopold’s move signals three critical messages: 1️⃣ AI Bubble Theory? He may believe current AI stock valuations have massively overpriced future expectations. While he still believes AGI will materialize in 2027–28, the market has already priced in that timeline. Look at NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom’s current P/E ratios—markets are pricing in perpetual growth. But Leopold may have spotted a turning point. 2️⃣ Shift from Infrastructure to Shorting Chips Last Q4, his logic was: Chips aren’t the bottleneck—power is. So he exited chip stocks and doubled down on energy. Now he’s gone further: Not only are chips not the bottleneck—chip stocks are wildly overvalued! So he’s going short. Yet he still holds key infrastructure names: BE (Bloom Energy) at 6.42%, IREN (Bitcoin miner pivoting to AI compute) at 2.93%, CORZ (Core Scientific) at 2.84%. This confirms his long-term bullishness on AI infrastructure remains intact—he simply believes chip stocks are priced irrationally. 3️⃣ Hedging or Pure Short? Note this detail: He retains select call options while shorting: • MU CALL – 3.09% • SNDK CALL – 2.84% • TSM CALL – 2.59% This is a straddle strategy—buying both puts and calls. He’s betting on volatility: whether prices surge or crash, as long as movement is large enough, he profits. But puts vastly outweigh calls—indicating a clear bearish bias. 📉 Risks and Controversies: Leopold’s move carries enormous risk: • Timing risk: Options expire. If markets don’t crash before expiration, he loses all premium paid. • Counterparty risk: He’s shorting some of the world’s most fundamentally strong tech companies. • Market sentiment risk: The AI boom continues; the Trump administration is aggressively promoting AI. Shorting tech stocks means going against the tide. But Leopold is sharp—he possesses exceptional situational awareness. I believe he’s seen things the average investor hasn’t. Possible catalysts: • SpaceX’s landmark IPO in mid-June, which could drain significant market liquidity • AI capital expenditures peaking (Microsoft, Google, Meta’s AI investment growth may slow) • Geopolitical risks (escalating U.S.-China tech war, semiconductor supply chain restructuring) • Macroeconomic pressures (recent surge in U.S. bond yields;投行 forecasts suggest the Fed won’t cut rates this year—and may even hike—raising costs for capital-intensive AI projects) 🎯 What Should Retail Investors Do? Don’t blindly copy! Leopold manages a hedge fund—he uses complex options strategies and has professional risk management teams. Retail investors lack these capabilities and resources. But you can learn from his mindset: • Stay skeptical: Don’t blindly believe “AI always goes up.” All assets cycle—even the best companies can become overvalued. • Monitor industry shifts: The AI supply chain is structurally evolving. Where are the bottlenecks? That’s where opportunity lies. • Hedge your risk: If you’re heavily invested in tech stocks, consider trimming positions on rallies or allocating to safe-haven assets like gold, U.S. Treasuries, or cash. • Think long-term, trade short-term: Be bullish on AI long-term, but expect near-term volatility. Set profit targets and stop-losses—don’t hold through drawdowns. In my view, Leopold’s strategy will likely be painful in the short term (1–3 months). If tech stocks keep rising, his puts will rapidly lose value. But over a 6–12 month horizon, he might be right. Market optimism around AI has reached extremes. Any negative catalyst—a major tech firm’s AI ROI falling short, or an AI safety incident—could trigger a cascade. And don’t forget: Last H1 2025, his fund returned +47%, far outpacing the S&P 500’s +6%.Il a ce historique, ce qui mérite que nous prenions au sérieux son jugement. Pour résumer : Les positions du SITUATIONAL AWARENESS LP pour le T1 2026 révèlent les signaux clés suivants : • Ventes massives sur les actions technologiques et les semi-conducteurs (7 PUT parmi les 10 principales positions) • Conservation des infrastructures IA (énergie, calcul, centres de données) • Utilisation de stratégies d’options pour se couvrir contre les risques, en pariant sur une forte volatilité du marché • Évolution de la logique : de « les puces ne sont pas un goulot d’étranglement » à « les actions de puces sont fortement surevaluées ». Il s’agit d’un virage extrêmement audacieux. Les deux à trois prochains mois seront déterminants pour vérifier le jugement de Leopold. À suivre ! 🧐