https://t.co/hWOXnKphtd 5 minuto lang malalaman! Morning Active FX News (2026.10.19) SBI Securities Official Channel #AISummary Oktubre 19 – FX Market Trends at a Glance at the Outlook for USD/JPY and EUR/USD This Week 🔳 Outlook for USD/JPY This Week With the FOMC meeting scheduled for the 27th–28th and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting on the 29th, both the U.S. and Japan are expected to hold interest rates steady. USD/JPY is anticipated to trade around 158 yen, exploring direction within the range of 157.50 to 158.50. 🔳 Factors Constraining USD/JPY Upside The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance toward an early rate hike and declining U.S. long-term yields are capping USD/JPY’s upside. The 200-day moving average at 158.58 yen is being watched as key resistance. 🔳 Factors Supporting USD/JPY Downside Tensions in the Middle East and attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have raised concerns over oil supply, pressuring the yen lower. WTI crude oil futures ended last week near $101. Additionally, concerns over funding for consumption tax cuts and fiscal expansion may also limit yen appreciation. 🔳 Watch Japan’s Consumer Price Index Japan’s September national CPI, to be released on the 23rd, is expected to come in higher than forecast. Depending on the result, expectations for a BOJ rate hike could strengthen, potentially pushing USD/JPY down to the 156-yen level. 🔳 USD/JPY Last Week’s Close In Tokyo trading, USD/JPY rose to 158.18 before retracing to 157.80. It rebounded to 158.09 in European trading, but fell to 157.70 amid declining U.S. long-term yields. It later recovered to 158.34 before closing at 158.00. 🔳 Outlook for EUR/USD This Week France’s fiscal deterioration, political uncertainty, and the Ukraine situation are weighing on the euro. The daily pivot line at 1.1195 serves as key support, while resistance is seen at 1.1277 and 1.1300. A break below 1.1195 could trigger stronger euro selling. 🔳 European Economic Data and ECB Policy Ahead of the ECB council meeting on the 28th–29th, attention turns to Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index on the 20th and Germany/Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMIs on the 23rd. Weak data could dampen rate hike expectations and reignite euro selling. 🔳 EUR/USD Last Week’s Close EUR/USD dropped to 1.1208 in Tokyo trading, then rose to 1.1269 in European trading amid falling U.S. long-term yields. However, it stalled ahead of the October 6 high of 1.1277 and retreated to 1.1213 in New York, closing at 1.1239. 🔳 U.S. Stock Market and Decline in AI-Related Stocks Last week, Nasdaq closed at 26,140.03, down 572.99 points (-2.14%), with a weekly decline of about 4.5%. Concerns over massive investments and debt burdens by AI-related firms intensified, with CoreWeave shares falling nearly 12%. The Dow Jones also fell by 175.28 points. 🔳 Impact of U.S. Long-Term Yields on Stock Markets Amid the sell-off in AI-related stocks, capital flowed into U.S. Treasuries as safe-haven assets, pushing down U.S. long-term yields. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury fluctuated between 5.06% and 5.12%. This week, focus will be on whether Nasdaq’s rebound and rising U.S. long-term yields will impact USD/JPY and EUR/USD. 🔳 Key Economic Indicators This Week On the 19th: China GDP and retail sales, Canada CPI, U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index. On the 20th: Germany ZEW Index, U.S. housing indicators. On the 21st: Japan trade balance, UK CPI. On the 22nd: Turkey Central Bank policy decision. On the 23rd: Japan CPI, UK retail sales, Germany/Eurozone/U.S. PMIs. 🔳 Key USD/JPY Levels Today With market participants adopting a wait-and-see stance ahead of next week’s U.S.-Japan monetary policy decisions, price action is expected to center around the mid-157 to mid-158 range. Continued decline in U.S. long-term yields and Nasdaq trends remain critical factors. 🔳 Key EUR/USD Levels Today If EUR/USD holds above 1.1195, a move toward 1.1269–1.1277 becomes possible. However, if it breaks below 1.1195 amid concerns over France’s fiscal situation and Ukraine tensions, euro depreciation could accelerate. 🔳 Spillover Effects on Japanese Stocks and FX Markets Following the sharp drop in U.S. AI-related stocks, Japan’s Nikkei Average is expected to decline, led by semiconductor-linked shares. Market attention will focus on how deeply U.S. stock corrections will ripple into Japanese equities and currency markets.