BlockInfinity Market Watch · 08-02: Ang war premium ay nawala, ang crypto ay nakapikit sa 63K magnetic zone 〔Weekend Thin Liquidity · US Markets Closed, Crypto 24h + Macro Takes Over Geopolitics〕 🌍 Macro / International 🟢 US stocks closed last Friday on a "Crazy July" rally with all three major indices up: S&P 7,489.72 (+0.7%) / Nasdaq 25,373.85 (+1.0%) / Dow 52,485 (+0.53%); Amazon +15.6%, Alphabet +7.1%, NVIDIA +3.5% led gains, while Apple −7.1% led losses. Markets closed for the weekend with no new trading. ⚔️ Middle East de-escalation: Saudi-Iran foreign ministers held talks, Trump canceled strikes on Iran for the second time within a week, and negotiations on Hormuz are progressing via Oman; reports of "reopening" are false. War premium drained → WTI plunged from ~$87 back to ~$81 (−6% in one day), compounded by OPEC+ agreeing to increase production by 188,000 barrels/day in September. Lower oil = reduced inflation and rate hike concerns, bullish for risk assets. 🔴 Japan reduced US Treasury holdings by $96B over the past three months → holdings dropped to $1.14T (lowest since April 2025); Japan’s Finance Minister will announce on Monday coordinated US-Japan efforts to curb yen depreciation—monitor carry trades and Treasury linkages. 🟡 Israel expresses dissatisfaction and doubts over Hamas disarmament, resumes bombing in Gaza; next week’s focus: US July Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday, biggest variable), Wednesday ADP + ISM Non-Manufacturing; China CPI/trade/reserves. 📈 Technical (Crypto Relief Rally) 🔴 $BTC $63,344 (+1.27%/24h): Daily/4H bearish alignment; daily MACD histogram deeply negative but recovering (momentum fading), RSI at 45; trading just above 63K max pain, narrow range consolidation. 🟢 ETH $1,877 (+2.25%, one of today’s strongest moves): Counter-rally after overnight longs were liquidated; daily chart still bearishly entangled. 🟡 SOL $73.6 (+3.39%, leading gainer): Daily bearish alignment but relatively resilient, leading the rebound. Weekend thin liquidity = fertile ground for magnetic pull and double-sided pinning. ⚙️ Derivatives 🟢 Funding rates turned mildly positive (shorts collect): BTC +0.0077%~+0.01%/8h, ETH +0.0014%. 💥 Overnight 24h long liquidations: BTC $58.9M (longs $35.3M / shorts $23.5M), ETH $95.1M (longs $77.4M / shorts $17.7M), SOL $19.6M → downward dominance followed by counter-rally. 🔴 Spot premium −0.12% / −$77 (discount, weak US spot demand). 😱 Fear & Greed Index 28 (Fear); DVOL 46 (low volatility). 🧲 Max Pain: 3AUG 63,500 / 4-5AUG 63,000 → Strong 63K magnetic pull, short-term direction remains unclear. 🧭 Comprehensive Assessment 🔴 Structural bias remains bearish: Daily bearish alignment + discount + cascading long liquidations + positive funding (shorts collecting) — bearish thesis intact. 🟡 But strong 63K max pain magnet + fear zone + oil plunge easing rate hike fears = short-term oversold bounce or short squeeze likely. Geopolitical de-escalation removed near-term directional catalysts — price now more likely to stick to max pain consolidation. Don’t mistake sideways action for a bottom, nor a bounce for a reversal. The trigger shifts to Friday’s NFP and next week’s CPI — macro data now takes over from geopolitics. 💡 Trading Suggestions 🔻 BTC: Bearish bias but avoid shorting at the 63K magnetic zone (giving away money); wait for counter-rally into supply zone at 64,000–64,900 for entries; invalidation levels at 64,900 / 65,800; only consider downside to 60,000 if daily close breaks below 61,660. 🔻 ETH: One of the weakest legs but rebounded today; bearish防线 at 1,920; break below 1,800 accelerates downside. ➖ SOL: Relatively strong — don’t chase long or short. ⚖️ Discipline: Light positions + wide stops during weekend thin liquidity; don’t be results-oriented — controlling your actions is more valuable than being right on direction. ⚠️ Risk Events 🔥 Friday (08-07): US July Non-Farm Payrolls (biggest variable this week) + Wednesday ADP/ISM Non-Manufacturing + next week’s CPI. ⚔️ Trump’s shifting stance on Iran (Israeli military remains on high alert for surprises), progress in Hormuz negotiations → oil/flight-to-safety can shift instantly. 🧠 FMS 2026 Flash Memory Summit 8/4–6 (Samsung/SK Hynix attending) + SpaceX/AMD earnings after Tuesday market close. 💱 Japan intervenes on Monday to support yen → carry trade and Treasury linkages in focus.