BlockInfinity Market Report · 7/18 Weekend Thin Liquidity Amid Middle East Escalation: BTC/ETH Weak Equilibrium Awaits Breakout; Avoid Catching Falling Knives 🌍 Macro & Geopolitics (This Cycle’s Main Theme) Over the weekend, U.S. stocks and Treasuries were closed; the focus was entirely on the Middle East—conflict escalated sharply. Iran claimed strikes on U.S. military targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan; a seawater desalination and power plant in Kuwait was attacked, causing multiple casualties. Iran announced it would cease implementing the Iran-U.S. memorandum of understanding and warned that if U.S. forces attack its infrastructure, Dubai/Abu Dhabi airports and Fujairah/Jebel Ali ports should prepare for evacuation. The GCC labeled it a "war crime," and the security of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has once again become a focal point (Iraq has rerouted oil exports via Syria to bypass the strait). By midday, conditions worsened further (verified): On Saturday, Iran launched missile strikes on the Muwaffaq Salti U.S. military base in Jordan, resulting in two U.S. military deaths and one missing—marking the first U.S. fatalities since the conflict resumed, bringing total deaths to 16 and injuries over 430. Anti-war sentiment is rising domestically in the U.S. Trump has received multiple proposals to expand military operations, including threats to strike Iranian civilian/energy infrastructure and weaken its control over the Strait of Hormuz; U.S. media reports suggest deploying approximately 100 additional refueling aircraft to the Middle East. 🧩 Transmission Framework Remains Unchanged: Escalation → Oil/Hormuz Risk Premium → Inflation → Rate Hike Expectations → Real Rates ↑ → Gold and BTC Both Under Pressure. This war is not a safe-haven narrative—it is being priced as "rate hikes." **Key focus: Monday’s opening gap in oil prices—more critical than BTC itself.** Hedge factors: Friday’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment rebounded to 54.4 (expected 51, prior 49.5); one-year inflation expectations fell to 4.2% (prior 4.6%, dovish). However, earlier this week, the Philly Fed index spiked to 41.4, and the Fed’s “hiking camp” narrative persists; CME September rate hike odds are nearly 50-50. 📈 Technicals · BTC / ETH BTC $64,090 → midday $64,490 (+0.7%): Daily chart above MA20 (63,041) / MA50 (63,368), but far below MA200 (73,088) = bear market rally; RSI at 55 neutral; range 62.4k–65.6k. 4H tightly clustered around MA20 (64,102) / MA50 (63,896) = key battleground; strength confirmed only if holding above 64,700. 1H Bollinger Bands narrowed to 0.48% = extreme compression; breakout imminent—watch for sustained hold above 64,400. Resistance: 64,400 / 64,730 / 65,590 | Support: 62,975 / 62,400 / 61,800. ETH $1,842 → midday $1,857 (+0.8%): Daily chart above MA20 (1,781) / MA50 (1,734), MA200 (2,184) far above; RSI at 56.6. 4H RSI at 28.8 deeply oversold, resting atop MA50 (1,834) = oversold bounce within weakness. Key level: 1,833 (daily support + 4H MA50)—breakout threshold: hold and reclaim 1,850 → target 1,900–1,946; break below 1,800 → weakness targets 1,794. ETH is closer to oversold threshold than BTC. SOL $75.3 (+0.1%) weakest. 💾 U.S. Stocks · Storage Trio (Weekend Closed; Monitor Friday Close + 24/7 Perpetuals) Continuing to be hammered (spillover from Korea quake): SNDK $1,342 → $1,343 (-5%~-10%) worst hit; Hynix ADR $152 (-2.7%~-7.7%); MU $839 → $838 (-3.5%~-5.2%); Hynix Korean shares $1,152 (-5.1%); INTC $93.6 (-2%). MU has broken below the $890–910 accumulation zone; SNDK broke below $1,530. Causes: ChangXin IPO draining liquidity + leveraged liquidation cascade—**fundamentals unchallenged** (earnings previews all surged; InnoLight denied 2027 price cuts). Counter-trend strength: SPCX $126 → $128 (+1.3%~+1.4%), commercial aerospace/SpaceX narrative decoupled from tech sell-off. News: Oracle (ORCL) revealed billions in unexpected cost overruns for data center projects (The Information). 🎯 Avoid Catching Falling Knives: Wait for MU to reclaim $890–950 / SNDK to reclaim $1,530–1,700 before considering longs; A-share counterparts (storage/optical modules/PCB) also mid-retracement. 🔬 Derivatives & Sentiment Funding rates neither side crowded (BTC +0.002%~+0.0085%/8h mildly positive; ETH near zero/mildly negative) = no short squeeze or cascade fuel; weekend thin liquidity =存量博弈 (存量博弈 = existing position trading). OI: BTC ~$1.975B (flat over 24h); ETH ~$1.31B (24h -4.47% decline) = ETH continues deleveraging. Long/Short Account Ratio: BTC 1.59 / ETH 1.82 (retail net longs, even more so in ETH—watch as contrarian indicator). Fear & Greed Index: 25 “Extreme Fear” (yesterday 27); spot premium -0.06%~-0.072% / ~-$41~-$46 = U.S. spot buyers still absent.📊 Bilang ng Pagpapalit Ang 24-h oras na volume ng BTC ay $2.46 bilyon kumpara sa ETH na $2.63 bilyon—tuloy-tuloy nang higitan ng ETH ang BTC sa volume sa maraming araw, aktibo ang paglipat. Ngunit ang ETH ay “mataas na turnover + pagbaba ng OI + presyo na nakapikit” = paglalaban ng umiiral na yaman/pagbawas ng leverage, hindi pagdaragdag ng bagong pangako; may volume nga, ngunit hindi malusog na pagtaas ng trend. Mababa ang kabuuang volume sa weekend, huwag isabing signal ang pagtaas ng presyo sa mababang likuididad. 🎯 Pagsusuri na Kombinado Kripto: Ang BTC at ETH ay nasa ilalim ng MA200 sa daily chart = patuloy pa ring estruktura ng pagbabalik sa bear market; maikling panahon ay nakadepende sa MA20/50 para sa mahinang balanse; ang Bollinger Bands sa 1H ay napakalapit na = malapit na ang pagbabago ng direksyon, ngunit wala pa ring tiyak na direksyon; dahil sa mababang volume sa weekend, huwag maglagay ng malaking posisyon. Relative strength: Ang ETH sa 4H ay oversold (RSI 28.8) + nakapagtatag sa 1,833 = mas mabuting tactical rebound opportunity kaysa sa BTC. Ang pinakamalaking variable ay nasa labas ng chart: Kung mapataas ng Middle East escalation ang presyo ng langis sa Monday → magkakaroon ng presyur sa risk assets (kabilang ang BTC) at magiging malakas ang ginto; kung mabawasan, magpapatuloy ang rebound at “pagtaas ng interest rate” chain ay magiging mas malaya. ⚠️ Ideya para sa Araw at Panganib · BTC: Sa interval na 62.4–65.6k, huwag mag-追高; epektibo lamang ang bullish view kung nakapagtatag sa 64,400–64,700 sa 4H, at makikita ang target na 65.6k; kung baba sa 62,400/63k, maging weak. Posisyon ≤1/3, malawak na stop-loss. · ETH: Maglagay ng maliit na posisyon para sa rebound mula sa oversold sa itaas ng 1,833, target na 1,900–1,946, stop-loss sa ibaba ng 1,800; kung baba sa 1,800, lumabas. · Pag-iimbak: Maghintay, hanggang makarecover ang MU sa 890–950 / SNDK sa 1,530–1,700; huwag magkuha ng “falling knife” sa gitna ng pagbaba; pagkuha =逆势, maximum 1/3 posisyon. · 🔥 Panganib: ① Pagtaas ng Middle East / Hormuz (jump sa presyo ng langis sa Monday) ② Pagbaba pa ng US stocks sa Monday bilang tugon sa geopolitical risk ③ Pagpapalakas ng “pro-hike” faction sa Fed ④ Patuloy na pag-iiwan ng pondo mula sa ChangXin IPO. · Mababang likuididad sa weekend: Huwag maglagay ng malaking posisyon, huwag mag-open short nang walang protection, huwag mag-追高; kontrolin ang posisyon, huwag maglaro nang walang stop-loss—panatilihin ang iyong mga bulala. —— BlockInfinity Research · Powered By Wesley