Bessent spoke. Now, eyes are on Fed members. According to Bessent, the Fed’s goal is not to halt the economy, but to keep inflation under control. He also noted that markets have confidence in the new Fed chair. However, the key question is whether interest rate policy will change as inflation slows. At 8:00 PM, Barkin, known for his hawkish stance, will speak; at 11:00 PM, Collins will speak. What matters most for Bitcoin is how these statements shift interest rate expectations. Messages to come later tonight could influence the market’s directional search.

📡 Biconomy Alpha Radar Everyone’s watching the Fed. But the bond market may have another problem. US 10Y yields have risen ~130bps since February. Rising yields can trigger mortgage hedging — potentially adding more selling pressure to bonds. Higher yields can create pressure for even higher yields. For crypto, that matters. Even if oil cools, borrowing costs may stay elevated. Watch the bond market, not just the Fed. #BiconomyCom #Bitcoin #Crypto

Bitcoin remains under pressure, and this week the crypto market faces several key U.S. economic events to watch! 👀 From CPI and PPI inflation data to the latest signals from the Fed, news from the U.S. can influence the direction of Bitcoin and altcoins. What should you be watching out for?

BlackRock $BLK has decided the market is pricing too many Fed hikes. That is why it is buying short term government bonds. Those are the bonds that gain if the Fed does fewer hikes than expected and the yield gives it some protection if it is wrong. BlackRock thinks long term yields can keep rising as the government and AI companies compete for the same money. But the 10Y is now at 5.2% so it gets more income to cover that risk. So it raised long term bonds to neutral and stopped there. It cut US stocks to neutral to make room for the bonds. It still likes AI but wants to see how the policy and spending questions play out before putting more money into US stocks. I think this says more about how much bonds now pay than how BlackRock feels about AI.

🚨 🇺🇸 Fed Independence Under Pressure Fed Governor Christopher $Waller says President $Trump is a threat to the Federal Reserve’s independence - but so far, he has failed to undermine it. Waller believes Congress and the courts will ultimately protect the Fed’s independence. For markets, institutional independence matters. 📊

🇺🇸 Key U.S. macro events on Tuesday Fed member Waller speaks. Markets will look for clues on inflation, labor market conditions, and the future path of U.S. interest rates. NFIB Small Business Index (forecast: 98.1). The index provides insight into the sentiment of U.S. small businesses, as well as their hiring plans and pricing pressures. ADP – Weekly Employment Change. Offers a current snapshot of employment trends in the U.S. private sector. Markets will closely watch for signs of further cooling in the labor market. Existing Home Sales (forecast: 3.95 million). The data provides indications of demand in the U.S. housing market and how financing costs are impacting economic activity. Fed members Barkin and Collins speak. Additional remarks from Fed officials could influence rate expectations, particularly if their assessments of inflation and employment risks diverge. Conclusion: A relatively quiet day for U.S. economic data. Focus will primarily be on statements from Fed officials and new signals from the labor market.

U.S. Inflation Data Tomorrow: Fed’s October Decision Tied to CPI, Markets Prepare for Four Scenarios The U.S. September CPI data will be released on Wednesday, October 14 at 15:30 Istanbul time. Record gasoline prices will push headline inflation higher, but eyes remain on core inflation. Markets currently assign roughly a 20% probability to an interest rate hike in October; a hotter-than-expected reading could instantly alter this outlook. 📊 PREVIOUS DATA AND EXPECTATIONS ▪️ Headline CPI YoY: Previous 3.4% → Expectation 3.6% – 3.7% ▪️ Headline CPI MoM: Previous 0.4% → Expectation 0.5% – 0.6% ▪️ Core CPI YoY: Previous 2.4% → Expectation 2.4% ▪️ Core CPI MoM: Previous 0.3% → Expectation 0.2% The Cleveland Fed’s real-time forecast model points to 3.60% for headline and 2.39% for core. ⛽ WHY WILL HEADLINE RISE? Energy is the driver. War in Iran and disruptions in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have kept oil prices elevated. Brent crude was around $107 at the end of September. In the U.S., the average price per gallon of gasoline hit $4.33 in September, breaking a monthly record. Gasoline alone contributed a monthly increase of 3.9% in August, accounting for more than one-third of the total rise. Energy prices rose 16.3% year-over-year, and airline tickets jumped 23.4%. 🎯 WHY IS CORE CRITICAL? The Fed reads whether energy shocks are spreading through the economy by monitoring core inflation. In August, annual core inflation fell to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021, but monthly core accelerated from 0.2% to 0.3%. The low annual figure is partly due to high base effects from 2025. Thus, markets will focus on monthly core trends. Note: The Fed’s target indicator is PCE and core PCE, both at 3.0%. A core CPI reading of 2.4% does not imply inflation is near target. Key items to watch: Rent, airline tickets, transportation services, and super-core (services excluding housing). 🏦 THE FED FRONT The Fed raised rates for the first time since July 2023 on September 16, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The dot plot suggests one more hike before year-end. ▪️ Waller: Rate hikes don’t need to come in consecutive meetings. ▪️ Williams: Another hike this year is reasonable; no rush. ▪️ Bowman and Jefferson: On the cautious side. Weak employment data pulled expectations lower: Non-farm payrolls rose just 29K in September, unemployment edged up to 4.2%, and wage growth slowed to 3.0%. Real wages are eroding, and stagflation risks are being discussed. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a hike in October is around 20%, while the chance of at least one hike by December exceeds 80%. The November 3 U.S. midterm elections also support a wait-and-see stance in October. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stands at 5.36%, its highest level since 2002. The DXY is trading around 102.3. 🔥 SCENARIO 1: HOT DATA Headline ≥3.8%, Core MoM ≥0.4% This implies energy shocks are spilling into core inflation. An October rate hike returns to the table; a 50-basis-point hike in December becomes plausible. ▪️ Dollar: Strong rally ▪️ EUR/USD: Downward pressure ▪️ USD/JPY: Upward move; 160 level critical due to potential Japanese intervention risk ▪️ Bond yields: Sharp rise, especially in the 2-year ▪️ Gold: Under pressure; recent low near $4,110 may re-emerge as key support; geopolitical risk premium may limit downside ▪️ Bitcoin and crypto: Selling pressure; risk of liquidations in leveraged positions; altcoins may fall harder ▪️ U.S. equities: Sell-off; Nasdaq most affected ▪️ TRY and Borsa Istanbul: Outflows from emerging markets; upward pressure on exchange rate ⚖️ SCENARIO 2: IN-LINE DATA Headline 3.6%–3.7%, Core MoM 0.2%–0.3% Current pricing holds: Hold in October, hike in December. The headline rise is viewed as energy-driven and temporary. ▪️ Dollar: Limited movement ▪️ Bond yields: Flat ▪️ Gold: Direction depends on geopolitical developments and dollar trends ▪️ Bitcoin: Data impact short-lived; focus returns to ETF flows▪️ Markets: Focus shifts to the same-day earnings reports from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley Note: BLS figures are reported to one decimal place. Both 0.26% and 0.34% appear as "0.3%." Because algorithms calculate the unrounded figure within seconds, even data matching expectations can trigger a two-way initial reaction. ❄️ SCENARIO 3: GOOD (COLD) DATA Headline below 3.5%, core monthly below 0.1% Combined with weak employment data, this strengthens the argument that the rate-hiking cycle has ended, casting doubt on a December hike. ▪️ Dollar: Clear weakening ▪️ EUR/USD: Upward ▪️ USD/JPY: Downward correction ▪️ Bond yields: Decline ▪️ Gold: One of the top gainers, supported by falling real yields and a weaker dollar ▪️ Bitcoin and crypto: Upward reaction on liquidity expectations, increased movement in altcoins ▪️ U.S. markets: Rally, technology leading ▪️ TRY and Borsa Istanbul: Risk appetite supported 🔀 SCENARIO 4: MIXED DATA Headline 3.8% or higher, core monthly below 0.2% One of this month’s most likely surprises. Message: Energy shock present, no broad-based spread. Initial reaction may respond to the headline, followed by a reversal based on core data. Gold and oil remain strong, while the dollar and interest rates stay uncertain; Bitcoin may recover after an initial drop. 📅 CALENDAR (IST) ▪️ Oct 14, 15:30: U.S. September CPI ▪️ Oct 14: BofA, Morgan Stanley, and ASML earnings reports ▪️ Oct 14, 21:00: Fed Beige Book ▪️ Oct 15, 15:30: U.S. September PPI ▪️ Oct 28, 21:00: Fed interest rate decision and Warsh press conference ▪️ Oct 29, 15:30: U.S. PCE and Q3 GDP ▪️ Nov 3: U.S. midterm elections ✅ CHECKLIST ▪️ Verify the latest consensus immediately before data release ▪️ First, examine the monthly core figure ▪️ Monitor impacts from airline tickets and fuel in transportation ▪️ Compare the 2-year Treasury yield before and after data release ▪️ Initial moves can reverse within minutes ▪️ Spreads widen, stops may be triggered. Reduce leverage in positions. CONCLUSION A headline increase is nearly certain; the key question is whether the energy shock has bled into core inflation. If core inflation aligns with expectations, a hold in October and a December hike remain the base case. A core upside surprise could trigger a sharp repricing of the dollar, interest rates, and risk assets. This is not investment advice. #CPI #Fed #Bitcoin #Gold #Markets