This week is a week where outlooks become meaningless. On Wednesday alone, PCE, GDP, and NVIDIA all coincide, followed by Waish’s first speech. The market’s decisive answer will emerge within 72 hours. At this point, any forecast anyone offers is merely analysis dressed up as a coin toss—and positioning ahead of these events is itself a forbidden attempt to predict timing.

Asian refineries are set to double their U.S. crude oil purchases in September, while gasoline prices in America hit record highs. The traditional financial world is stuck in a dead end: one party profits while another is paralyzed by inflation. In our Web3 ecosystem, liquidity flows freely, without boundaries. No matter where prices go, disciplined traders always know how to win. Leave traditional crises behind—focus on turning your screen green! ⛽💸🚀

🚨 PETROL PRICE PRICING HAS BEGUN! Brent crude has declined over 2.5% to around $91. Reason: Pakistan announced “significant progress” in talks with Iran regarding the potential revival of the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal. Note on the chart: Brent crude has once again been rejected from the primary downtrend. If a new agreement is genuinely reached on the U.S.-Iran front and risks around the Strait of Hormuz ease, downward pressure on oil could intensify. 📉 Lower oil prices → reduced inflationary pressure 📉 Easing inflation → positive for interest rates 📈 This scenario → supportive for Bitcoin and risk assets But no deal has been finalized yet—what’s currently priced in is merely the “possibility of peace.” So one eye is on Bitcoin; the other is now fixed on the Tehran-Islamabad-Washington axis.

🌍 Top 5 Global News (Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Trends) The Jackson Hole Symposium enters its 72-hour countdown, as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a historic 9-3 policy split. The global monetary policy framework is undergoing a moment of profound reckoning. The 2026 Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, will officially begin on August 28. The July FOMC meeting minutes revealed a 9-3 vote split, confirming deep internal divisions within the Fed over persistent inflation. Chairman Warsh’s 15-member external expert panel is conducting a systemic review of the Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) framework, as bond markets brace for potential policy opacity ahead of the summit. Hormuz Strait weekend traffic plunges below 20 vessels as Iran blacklists 45 tankers, escalating supply chain rupture risks. The geopolitical lifeline of the Persian Gulf is facing sharply rising disruption risks. Latest shipping tracking confirms weekend vessel traffic through the Hormuz Strait has plummeted to fewer than 20 vessels (13 on Saturday, just 4 on Sunday). Iran has officially added 45 non-compliant tankers to its seizure blacklist, causing a sharp slowdown in Middle Eastern crude oil physical flows. U.S. Treasury announces planned “most stringent sanctions ever” against Iran, as federal debt surges past $40 trillion for the first time. Wall Street builds dual walls of fiscal policy and sanctions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday signaled a comprehensive escalation of economic sanctions against Iran. Simultaneously, total U.S. public debt has historically breached the $40 trillion macro threshold, forcing the Treasury to accelerate technical interventions as long-term bond interest costs mount. Ukrainian drone swarm launches overnight strike on Moscow outskirts; cascading fires engulf Eastern European logistics hubs. Intensity on secondary fronts continues to overload. Ukraine deployed over a hundred long-range drones overnight to strike Russian deep-logistics facilities, inflicting physical damage on major freight hubs near Moscow. The strategic supply chain balance sheets of Eastern Europe now face prolonged geopolitical revaluation. Asia-Pacific semiconductor and manufacturing corridor accelerates “decentralized de-risking,” leveraging multilateral local-currency settlement to bypass high-risk maritime lanes. Amid sustained high interest rates and geopolitical blockades from the West, core manufacturing economies in the Global South and Asia-Pacific are rapidly adopting onshore distributed ledgers and local-currency clearing channels to conduct bilateral large-scale physical trade settlements, circumventing perilous sea lanes.

🧐 How do midterm elections affect the stock market? Citigroup’s report reviews midterm elections since 1960, breaking down market performance along a timeline (with November 3 as T0): ✔️ Approximately 50 trading days before the election: Risk premium rises. ✔️ Current baseline scenario: Divided government (opposition party controls at least one chamber). Calendar breakdown: 🔹 60 to 30 trading days before the election: Uncertainty intensifies; equities tend to pull back, volatility rises. 🔹 30 trading days before the election to election day: Risks are fully priced in; equities may rally in advance, volatility peaks. 🔹 Election day to 50 trading days after: If divided government materializes, fiscal constraints on U.S. Treasuries strengthen, and the advantage of defensive sectors weakens. 🔹 50 to 100 trading days after the election: Cyclical sectors such as growth, technology, and industrials are more likely to recover. Historically, technology stocks tend to outperform most after elections, followed by industrials; defensive sectors like healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities tend to underperform. Source: @qinbafrank

How do midterm elections affect the market? In its latest report, Citigroup mapped all midterm elections since 1960 onto a single timeline to analyze trends in equities, interest rates, credit, gold, and sector rotation. In simple terms: About 50 trading days before the election, risk premiums often begin to rise; a divided government (where the opposition party gains control of at least one chamber) is the baseline scenario. Citigroup has broken down the coming months into a trading clock, with November 3 as T0: First phase (T-60 to T-30): Risk premiums rise, equities tend to pull back, and implied volatility gradually increases; Second phase (T-30 to election day): As event risk becomes fully priced in, equities may pre-emptively rebound, and volatility often peaks about one month before the election; Third phase (election day to T+50): If a divided government materializes, the fiscal constraint logic for U.S. Treasuries is most likely confirmed; meanwhile, defensive factors that outperformed before the election may begin to lose momentum; Fourth phase (T+50 to T+100): Growth factors, technology, and cyclical sectors like industrials are more likely to enter a recovery phase. Historically, technology has been the clearest relative winner post-election, followed by industrials; defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities tend to underperform. Will this cycle follow the same pattern? 🤔

Four events this week and any one of them can move this whole Crypto market on its own. Mon - Bessent speaks Wed - Core PCE + NVIDIA earnings, same day Thu - Jackson Hole opens Fri - the keynote Also don't forget that the Strait of Hormuz is still shut, oil is at $85, and we had a weekend escalation between Israel and Turkey to which the market doesn't look like it's priced that in yet. Any one of these events can decide on whether this rally keeps going or ends here. We've already called which one we think matters most, our bias going in, and the one level we're waiting on that decides everything. That's in the VIP. Don't be emotional. Be logical. 💎

At just $80,000 away from the final push, implied volatility has risen to 60%. This week is the monthly settlement week for August, and low overall open interest has resulted from months of sluggish markets. Despite last week’s strong price movement, there have been no significant structural changes in the options market. This week also features the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, taking place from August 27 to 29 in Wyoming, USA, with the theme “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” Additionally, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will unveil the U.S. government’s new fiscal consolidation plan over the weekend—two major macro events concentrated at the end of this week. Market sentiment remains strong, with the Greed Index reaching 80. Avoid chasing tops during the first leg of the rally, and do not engage in retaliatory shorting out of fear of missing out.

Kevin Warsh May Be Less Hawkish Than Markets Assume Wall Street has reduced Kevin Warsh to a familiar label: inflation hawk. His forecasting history suggests a more useful interpretation—he is a supply-side policymaker whose stance depends on how much the economy can produce. The old signal After the financial crisis, most Fed officials saw unemployment above 9% as enormous slack that would suppress inflation. Warsh believed part of that unemployment had become structural. Capital was being misallocated, labor markets were struggling to adjust, and unpredictable regulation, fiscal policy and trade policy were weakening productive capacity. If the economy could produce less than before, high unemployment was not necessarily evidence of weak inflation pressure. That explains why Warsh forecast relatively high inflation alongside a damaged labor market. The calibration proved too pessimistic. Unemployment eventually fell to 3.5%, while inflation remained subdued for most of the following decade. The AI reversal Warsh’s framework has not changed, but the supply-side conclusion might. He now argues that AI could raise productivity, expand the economy’s capacity and reduce costs over time. If that is correct, stronger growth would not automatically represent overheating. The Fed could tolerate faster output growth and a tighter labor market without assuming another inflation surge was imminent. That would make Warsh less hawkish toward growth than his reputation suggests. The market mistake Investors are treating his old inflation warnings as proof that he will instinctively favor tighter policy. But those warnings reflected his estimate of productive capacity—not a permanent preference for high rates. The same policymaker who viewed damaged supply as inflationary can view AI-enhanced supply as disinflationary. That still does not guarantee aggressive rate cuts. Higher productivity can support faster growth and potentially a higher neutral rate, even while reducing inflation pressure. Bottom line: Warsh’s reaction function matters more than the hawkish label. His defining judgment will be whether AI is producing measurable productivity—or merely creating another investment boom that demand is outrunning.