Apple $AAPL is not currently a strong candidate, as the existing consumer market has limited growth potential, and the newly launched Duo has been met with little demand. Beyond smartphones, the market potential for other products is also constrained. Once a new AI-enabled operating system emerges, Apple’s competitive moat could rapidly erode. Apple is clearly lagging behind in AI development; its in-house chips show no immediate competitiveness at the server level. While Mac product lines have seen some positive momentum due to AI, their overall potential remains limited. With growth prospects constrained above and significant risks below, I’d also sell calls.

Today’s rebound by Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk is purely a dead cat bounce—the prolonged decline on shrinking volume is the ugliest possible chart pattern, worse than a high-volume pin bar. Right now, the market looks like everyone is trapped in storage stocks. With A-Company’s sky-high IPO coming soon, how will this market hold up until the day it crashes?

My loss is exactly one hundred millionth of South Korea's pension fund.

Yesterday, I attended a meeting in Financial Street, where an alumnus introduced me to a leader from the Science and Technology Department of the People’s Bank of China. Upon learning that I work in cryptocurrency, he took some time to speak with me privately—there were a few points he raised that were quite interesting. Many regulators today want to get involved in the crypto space, but they generally avoid anything directly related to cryptocurrencies or tokens; instead, the focus has shifted entirely to RWA. (Though in crypto circles, RWA already feels like something from last century.) He expressed strong optimism about the integration of computing power, AI infrastructure, and blockchain, and hopes to see successful international projects emerge. There is now significant domestic talent and capital eager to enter this industry, with some traditional industry players already beginning operations in the Middle East and Central Asia. He holds a generally pessimistic view of Hong Kong—those focused on finance see more potential in the Middle East, while those focused on infrastructure are looking toward the Belt and Road Initiative. Hong Kong lacks both regulatory advantages and tangible industrial capacity. Last year, many still had high hopes for Hong Kong’s blockchain development; this year, most have lost interest entirely.

[October 16 Options Expiration Data] 18,000 BTC options contracts expired, with a Put/Call Ratio of 1, the maximum pain level at $83,000, and a notional value of $1.47 billion. Today’s expiration saw 4.5% of total BTC options open interest expire. Affected by weak macroeconomic data, U.S. equities experienced a significant pullback, and cryptocurrencies largely followed suit, resulting in relatively weak market conditions. Looking at key options data, implied volatility (IV) is currently at low levels—35% is already near its floor, indicating extremely low market expectations for future price movement. Despite a strong market rally this summer, the main-term options market has not seen elevated IV; buyers have remained cautious and unwilling to pay high premiums for directional bets. Gamma exposure (Gex) is gradually converging around the $90K round figure, while put gamma is beginning to accumulate at the $80K strike. Cryptocurrencies delivered a solid rebound this summer, sustaining a two-month mini-bull market. As noted last week, monthly out-of-the-money IV remained low, making it prudent to implement some bearish directional protection. This week’s decline has validated that strategy, and rolling positions remains advisable.

Back in the day, during long holidays like Chinese New Year and National Day, market trading volume and activity would significantly decline. Starting around Christmas 2022, the influence of Western holidays clearly surpassed that of Chinese holidays, and the trading habits of Chinese users have had an increasingly smaller impact on mainstream crypto markets. As the market became fully dominated by whitepaper-driven projects and capital, weekends also turned into dead zones for trading—crypto has been under whitepaper dominance for three years now. Although exchange platforms are still primarily led by exchanges founded by Chinese entrepreneurs, it must be acknowledged that Chinese users now have virtually no meaningful influence on the crypto market.

The market has entered a pullback, with put options accounting for one-third of total trading volume. Implied volatilities for major option tenors have slightly declined compared to the past two weeks; during this rally, IV did not rise significantly and has now dropped to around 35%. Based on options data, this appears consistent with a mid-cycle rebound in a bear market, as market participants have low expectations for volatility and tend to sell volatility even with minor price movements. https://t.co/wE9I5NVEgi

To attract new capital, crypto still needs to secure the U.S. market.

The strategy of "never sell" is just marketing; meanwhile, ETF outflows are slowing, and whitepaper claims are utterly unreliable. The conflict in the Middle East has reignited, and the Fed’s rate hike is essentially inevitable, creating significant macroeconomic pressure. U.S. equities saw a modest rebound this month, but it has largely been erased so far. AI-related stocks now appear to be showing clear signs of losing momentum. Waiting for Trump’s next statement: “We have won in Iran.”

[September 11 Options Expiration Data] 29,000 BTC options expired, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.6, open interest peak at $78,000, and notional value of $2.24 billion. 114,000 ETH options expired, with a Put/Call Ratio of 1.17, open interest peak at $2,450, and notional value of $280 million. Bitcoin continues to consolidate around $80,000. It surged to $80,000 over three days at the end of last month and has since remained range-bound for nearly three weeks. Indeed, Bitcoin’s consolidations typically occur over very short periods, followed by prolonged sideways movement. Monthly realized volatility (RV) remained unchanged from last week, while monthly implied volatility (IV) rose slightly, with VRP rising across most tenors. Looking at other key options data: 7% of options expired this week; BTC and ETH open interest decreased slightly compared to last week, and overall trading activity has cooled somewhat. Long-side GEX continues to converge, with short call positions gradually accumulating above $78,000—$80,000 remains the peak. Short-side GEX is also beginning to cluster around $77,000, ending the previous state of complete dispersion. After a 10-month bear market, the primary gains in this bull cycle were concentrated in just one week last month. However, during the pullback, some altcoins and meme tokens have shown signs of recovery—a positive signal. The brief calm in U.S. equities has provided the crypto market with a breathing window; market sentiment remains highly optimistic. With monthly out-of-the-money IV still relatively low, directional long positions remain worth considering.