Meta’s Q3 results exceeded expectations, as previously discussed: revenue reached $64.6 billion, surpassing the market expectation of $63.3 billion (and institutional forecasts averaging $63.8 billion), representing a 26% year-over-year growth.
For Q4, revenue guidance is set between $73 billion and $76 billion, with a midpoint of $74.5 billion, above the market expectation of $73 billion.
Free cash flow turned negative at $2.2 billion—the first such occurrence since going public—but was significantly better than the market expectation of a $9.4 billion outflow. The company raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance floor from $130 billion to $135 billion.
EPS came in at $3.83, below the expected $6.54, primarily due to a $9.89 billion legal settlement charge. Excluding this one-time item, adjusted EPS was $7.40, exceeding market expectations. Net income totaled $9.86 billion, with a net margin of approximately 15.3%.
In summary, revenue and guidance both surpassed expectations, but profit quality was distorted by a one-time legal expense; AI investments are pressuring margins and free cash flow.
From an investment perspective:
1) The actual performance of the advertising business was stronger than feared prior to the earnings release. Even though new AI products have not yet generated significant standalone revenue, Meta retains a robust operational foundation.
2) Muse’s progress is noteworthy. It has now delivered real-world usage data—including setup, daily interaction, and transactional use—making its commercial value easier to assess than when it was merely a product demo. Management’s early consideration of monetization signals recognition that agent-based services require new operational models to address cost structures.
3) The enterprise platform business is just beginning, with its product lineup now clearly defined; actual business metrics may emerge in Q4.
Meta is advancing its vision of “personal superintelligence” from concept toward productization and commercialization: Muse serves as the core driver, advertising remains the cash flow engine, AI capital expenditures represent the largest mid-term investment, and non-voting Class C shares function as a tool to balance financing needs with control retention.