Fed rate hike speculation rises
September 1, odds of a Fed rate hike this month rose to 66% per futures. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled urgency on 3.7% inflation at Jackson Hole.

Inverse Cramer Indicator | Fading Jim @jimcramer shared his 4x omens this morning, but the current inflationary headwinds could just be temporary: ○ Fed chair doing his job (hawkish but no hikes) ○ President can't end the war ○ Allies still rely on United States ○ Oil and energy prices rise on uncertainty Jim's conclusion is that rates can't go down: Longtime students of the Inverse Cramer indicator know the playbook: 1) Fade his take. 2) Buy the fear. It has front-run more reversals than any oscillator we track - here are some of the factors we're watching before pulling the trigger: Sept FOMC | Interest Rate Cuts x NFP ○ JOLTS 7.271M vs 7.313M est. ○ June revised down 177K ○ Quits flat at 3.1M = no wage story ○ Hike odds 33% → 57% → 66% - UP on the miss ○ Watch Friday's nonfarm payrolls print ○ Watch Friday's wage growth #'s A labor miss that raises hike odds means the policy put is gone. Soft data ≠ cuts anymore. Wage Growth Numbers (Fri) | (Est. 3.0%) Odds of Hike (-) ○ Wages cool to 2.9% ○ Jobs under +25K Odds of Hike (+) ○ Wages hot at 3.2% ○ Jobs over > +100K The cut trade is not delayed, its just priced out - is this the one time not to fade Jim?

The market is pretending this is an earnings tape, but it is an energy tape. Crude ripping on Strait of Hormuz strike headlines is dragging yields back to post-2008 highs while the Nasdaq leaks anyway, and that combo is the cleanest inflation stress signal you can get in real time. The real story is the policy box getting smaller: oil up, term premium up, growth down, and $SPY gets forced to reprice the entire discount rate stack. ⚠️🛢️

Fed Governor Barr just warned rates may need to rise further if inflation doesn't cool soon, a hawkish signal landing right as gold and silver are seeing a sharp pullback. Precious metals wobbling and a Fed official talking rate hikes in the same news cycle isn't a coincidence, it's the market repricing risk in real time. Worth watching if this spills into crypto liquidity next.

U.S. Fed member Michael Barr: • The economy is strong, and the labor market is stable. • AI investments are supporting growth. • Inflation remains too high. • If inflation does not decline sufficiently, another interest rate hike may be considered. • Interest rate policy will be reassessed at the September FOMC meeting.

U.S. Fed member Michael Barr: • The economy is strong, and the labor market is stable. • AI investments are supporting growth. • Inflation remains too high. • If inflation does not fall sufficiently, another interest rate hike could be on the table. • Interest rate policy will be reassessed at the September FOMC meeting.

PERFECT STORM: TRUTH vs LIES Central Bank HIKES coming in the face of -20% sustained oil supply drop, global trade restrictions and massive AI farted bubble relying on the LIES on ConMen, all managed by Epstein compromised leaders misleading societies 24/7. I do think that Fed & EC will hike; 1987 and 1929 will pale in comparison to what is coming: we are entering late Bronze Age type collapse. I am the biggest PERMABEAR on X, initially laughed at by exponential growth fools; now people are not so sure (otherwise, why would 20k people follow me?).

BREAKING: Trump just refused to talk Warsh out of a rate hike. "No. I have a lot of respect for him, and he'll do what he has to do." "I think our interest rates are too high." This is a real shift in tone. He picked Warsh specifically because he "wants to" cut rates. In February: "If he came in and said, 'I want to raise them,' he would not have gotten the job. No." Now Warsh is openly signaling a possible hike. At Jackson Hole, days ago: "Inflation is running above our 2% target, so the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices." "They do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved." And Trump isn't fighting him on it. He's still pushing his broader case. "We should have the lowest interest rates in the world." Framing it as a trade advantage. Other countries pay less because they do business with America, in his telling. But on the actual near-term decision, he's stepping back. Letting the Fed Chair he personally chose make the hawkish call. Even while disagreeing with the outcome out loud.







