⚠️ The theme priced in the FX options market is no longer just a weak NFP. Three distinct risk premiums are simultaneously being recalibrated on the board. Rate premium: Downward revision in terminal Fed rate expectations, a lower restrictive-rate regime implied by the OIS forward curve, and reduced assumptions of real-rate persistence. Growth premium: A combination of below-trend growth and controlled disinflation, replacing the severe recession scenario. Erosion of the recession hedge premium, with increased probability of a soft landing. USD premium: Gradual de-risking and positioning normalization in dollar long positions accumulated over recent months—less a structural dollar bear market, more a rebalancing of risk premia. Within this framework, a one-sided downside breakout in DXY with high delta is less likely than volatility compression and price discovery. The recent narrative of “higher for longer” equating to persistent USD longs has clearly lost traction. The market’s new focus: interest rate differentials, real yields, growth differentials, and their impact on implied distributions.

🚨 🇺🇸 JOBLESS CLAIMS DROP TO 215K AS LABOR MARKET REFUSES TO BREAK U.S. unemployment claims came in at 215K on the latest reading shown, sitting below the forecast line and keeping layoffs contained. The chart shows claims have cooled from recent higher prints, even as payroll growth has slowed sharply. This is the twist markets must respect. NFP says hiring is weaker, but claims say companies are not rushing to fire workers. Treasuries, the dollar, gold and rate-sensitive tech are the focus. Lower claims support soft-landing hopes; sticky labor strength keeps Fed-cut timing under pressure.

Ziraat Bank provides 1 trillion lira in credit support to agriculture. Ziraat Bank General Manager Alpaslan Çakar stated that the total agricultural credit balance, reaching approximately one million producers, has reached 1 trillion lira, and noted that 70 liras of every 100 liras of agricultural credit provided to farmers come from Ziraat Bank. Çakar emphasized the strategic importance of agriculture and reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to continuing financial support for sustainable production and food security.

Overall I like this. Some sort of dip now but ultimately higher in July leading us to a collapse in September Weak all next week.. posted possible targets Up to fomc end of month nATHs A bunch of chop in Aug Sept collapse at least 10% if not more.

U.S. inflation is at its highest level in three years. The VIX index has been trending downward since March. U.S. interest rates have remained elevated for five years. If the VIX has peaked, if interest rates have peaked, if inflation has peaked, and if EUR/USD is at its lowest level—

June 2026 Foreign Exchange Reserves / Cadangan Devisa (Expected July 7): Markets will scrutinize Bank Indonesia's reserves.

US FOMC June Meeting Minutes (July 8): The Federal Reserve will release the highly anticipated minutes from its mid-June meeting.

Despite popular belief… There is a high likelihood that we get rate cuts this year. They will let inflation run hot. They have no other choice. Most people still aren’t prepared…

Okay, you are European and you are baffled by $DJI, that is Dow Jones Industrial Average Index... You look at the chart of Papa Dow and somehow you grasp that this one could potentially outperform $SPX in '26. Also, you get that currently nothing in this chart looks bearish at all. What to do?

$SPX The SPX was in one of its narrower ranges last week briefly slipping under the 8-week EMA but finishing well above and overall a choppy last four weeks for markets. The high last week stalled right at trend resistance off prior highs and above 7530 is key now to unlocking a move higher. Conversely, 7345 is a key level to defend or risk slipping into a pocket with the 21-week EMA then firmly in-play at 7185 while 7265 is AVWAP off the March lows and 7315 a trend/value level that can accelerate a move lower. The 7400 round number is a minor support to start next week. Utilizing March lows to June highs, retracement levels include 23.6% at 7317, 38.2% at 7125 and 50% at 6971. A push above 7600 unlocks Fibonacci extension targets at 7735.85, 7795 and 7890.